How Will the Pitch Clock Affect the Diamondbacks?
The Joint Competition Committee between MLB and the MLB Players Association have approved a set of rule changes for the 2023 season. The 11 person committee consists of 4 players 6 owner's representatives, and one umpire representative. None of the players voted in favor of the rule changes.
What are the rule changes?
A Pitch Timer, increased base size and limitations on defensive shifts are the three major rule changes that are going into effect next season. This article focus on the Pitch Timer, changes to the size of the bases, and their potential impacts on the league and the Diamondbacks. Michael McDermott explored the impacts of the new shift rules separately.
- There will be a 30 second timer between batters. The batter will need to get out of the on deck circle and up to the plate quickly.
- The pitcher must begin his motion within 15 seconds of receiving the ball from the catcher with bases empty and 20 seconds with runners on base or they will be charged a ball.
- Batters must be in the box within 8 seconds between pitches and ready to hit or they will be charged a strike.
- Pitchers are limited to two pickoff attempts or step offs. If they make a third attempt the runner automatically advances unless the pickoff attempt is successful.
- Base sizes will be increased from 15 to 18 inches, resulting in a 4.5 inch reduction in the distance between first and second base
There are other rules regarding mound visits, injury timeouts, and umpire discretion in special circumstances, etc.
What will be the league wide impacts ?
The pitch clock has been implemented using various times at various levels of the minor leagues for years now. There has been a great deal of experimentation and research conducted. I first encountered it personally in the Arizona Fall League in 2018. I've since been to a number of minor league games in both A+ and AAA. The crisp pace was evident from the start and players quickly adapted after some initial hesitation and confusion. Subsequently MiLB has continued experimenting on MLB's behalf and continued to receive positive results. In the Low A West league last year game times were reduced by over 20 minutes. This year, being used throughout the minors, the pitch clock has resulted in a 26 minute reduction in game time.
Besides reduced game time, and a quicker overall pace with less dead time, the other major benefit that many fans will soon embrace is the reduction in strikeouts and walks and more balls in play. As I wrote when proposing a pitch clock back in 2017:
Hitters will feel pressure to just get in and hit, increasing their swing % and end up putting more balls in play. The pitchers, under pressure to deliver the pitch would be more likely to pitch to contact instead of trying to go max effort and make the perfect pitch every time to strike the hitter out.
That is exactly what has actually happened. For example last year in the Low A West league Walks dropped from 11.7% to 10% after pitch clock implementation. Strikeouts dropped as well, but batting average went up from .244 to .269. While it's impossible to say just how much "roll back" there will be to three true outcomes baseball, (plays that result in a walk, strikeout, or homer), at the very least these rules will help stem the tide and slow the growth of "3 True Outcomes" and slow the reduction of balls in play.
What will be the impact on the Diamondbacks players?
Note: This section of the article will be dependent on Pitch Tempo stats as provided by Statcast. You'll need to make a mental adjustment reducing a couple of seconds to the numbers quoted below due to the following explanation on their site:
It is important to note that this is not measuring the same timing as the pitch timer currently being used in the minor leagues. That pitch timer starts when the pitcher receives the return throw from the catcher and ends once the pitcher starts his delivery. Our tempo metric measures the time between pitch releases: starting the clock as soon as the pitcher releases the previous pitch and ending when the pitcher releases the next pitch.
Pitchers:
Zac Gallen is likely to be the starting pitcher that has to make the biggest adjustment. His tempo with nobody on is fine at 16.8 seconds. However with runners on base his tempo jumps all the way to 26.8 seconds. That 10 second gap is the largest on the team and one of the largest in MLB. Gallen also leads all of MLB in pickoff attempts with 129. Not only will he need to quicken his pace by at least 4-5 seconds, he'll have to cut way back on the number of pickoff throws.
It's notable that Merrill Kelly ranks 4th and Zach Davies rank 5th on that pick-off leaderboard linked above, so it's clearly an organizational strategy to control the running game.
Madison Bumgarner has the quickest tempo with runners on base of any starter on the D-backs, 20.1 seconds.
Mark Melancon (20.3) has the 2nd slowest tempo of any pitcher on the team with bases empty, Ian Kennedy (21.1) being the slowest. But with runners on base Melancon zooms to the top with 28.4 seconds between pitches. It should be noted that relief pitchers tend to dominate this leaderboard league wide.
Hitters:
Christian Walker is the only one that stood out to me. He has the slowest time between pitches for both bases empty (20.1) and runners on base (25.8). This could be pitchers taking their time with the most dangerous bat in the lineup, but anecdotally it feels like he takes his time between pitches, especially when he's unhappy with a strike call.
Baserunners
For the speedy young Diamondbacks in particular, I'm expecting a big increase in the number of successful stolen base attempts. While a rising tide may lift all boats, the D-backs should benefit more than most teams.
Josh Rojas (19 SB, 3 CS) and Jake McCarthy (15 SB, 1 CS) have already shown an ability to successfully steal at a high rate. Corbin Carroll racked up 52 steals against just 7 caught in 142 minor league games and is one of the fastest player in baseball. Alek Thomas, Daulton Varsho and Geraldo Perdomo are three other exceptionally fast runners. Should the team alter their style of play to take full advantage of these rules, no team stands to benefit more.
New School is Old School, the game will be better
Many have complained about the preponderance of three true outcomes baseball. When the ball is seldom put in play, when we don't get to see fielders field and runners run, and there is interminable down time, the game can be a drag. And they can take well over 3 or even 4 hours. These rules will at least stem the tide of 3TO baseball, allow for more action on the field, and reduce game times. This should be what every fan of the game wants.
There will be an adjustment period, and there will be complaints early in the 2023 season. But these complaints, and even the very presence of the pitch clock itself will fade into the background as players and fans alike get used to the quicker pace and increased action and excitement on the field.
