MLB Win Projections vs. Betting Sites Over/Under Lines
A couple of days ago Alex D'Agostino presented an analysis of various betting sites, and where they set the over/under line for the Diamondbacks win total in 2024. The average of five websites came out to be 84.1 wins, putting them squarely in the hunt as a Wild Card contender in the National league.
Today we take a look at Fangraphs projected standings and Playoff odds. Here is how that website explains their method:
To generate the playoff odds, we take the current standings, the remaining schedule, and each team's projected performance. We use those inputs to simulate the remaining season 20,000 times. We aggregate these outcomes to find the probability of winning the division or a Wild Card spot, along with winning the World Series and various playoff rounds. If a team has a 90% chance to make the playoffs it means that 18,000 out of the 20,000 simulated seasons end with the team making the playoffs. We also report a projected W and L record. This is the average of the total wins in each of the simulated seasons for the team.
As it turns out, Fangraphs sees the D-backs almost exactly the same as the betting sites, coming in with 84.4 projected wins. That also puts them in the second Wild Card position, behind the Phillies, and an overall 53.2% chance to make the playoffs. In fact, Fangraphs projects the same three National League division winners and wild card teams as the consensus among the betting sites. The Braves, Cardinals, and Dodgers project as division winners while the Phillies, D-backs, and Cubs are the projected Wild Card teams.
What's most interesting perhaps is looking at teams with the biggest differences between their Fangraphs projected wins and betting sites over/under wins. In general, big market teams where fans are likely to take the over bet have the largest negative differential. Small market teams are most likely to project more wins at Fangraphs than the Betting sites over/unders have them pegged.
No team has a bigger gap in the NL than the Dodgers, who project nearly 10 wins under their over/under. That may present an opportunity for some. On the other end of the spectrum, Fangraphs projections still have the Brewers around a .500 team, and 5 wins better than their over/under, despite the loss of Corbin Burnes. Teams with a differential of two wins or more are highlighted in Red and Green in the table below
Fangraphs Projections vs. Average of Five Betting Sites Over/Under Win Totals
Jack Sommers
Over in the American League, the 2023 World Champion Rangers are projected to win a whopping 8.2 fewer games than the Over/Under number, and miss the playoffs altogether. The Orioles, Yankees and Blue Jays also project significantly lower than their over/under totals. Meanwhile the A's, wherever they end up playing, project on paper to win a stunning 12.9 more games than their over/under average. How the uncertainty over where they'll even be playing games affects the player is difficult to say. Perhaps they'll be disinterested and fall well below their projections, or maybe they'll be motivated by disrespect, like the players in the movie Major League, and go out and win a bunch of games out of spite. It's notable that the Angels have the second highest positive projected win difference with 5.8 more wins than the betting lines. Perhaps they are a good starting pitcher and DH away from being a playoff contender.
AL Projections vs Over Under
Jack Sommers
Summary
The Diamondbacks look to be a solid Wild Card contender once again in 2024. They've shored up their roster with veterans like Eduardo Rodríguez, Eugenio Suárez, and Joc Pederson. They're returning their core of young players led by Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno, and others. And of course veteran mainstays such as Zac Gallen, Ketel Marte, Merrill Kelly and Christian Walker are returning as well. While the overall projected win total for the team may seem underwhelming, it appears the team has a solid floor, and should be able to withstand an injury or two and still compete for a playoff spot.
The Dodgers and Rangers may be the two best "under" bets, as their projections are significantly below the betting lines. The A's may be the best over bet, based on the Fangraphs projections.
