MLB Composite Win Projections Blowout
Now that the dust has settled a bit and projection systems have had a chance to catch up with the latest moves and signings of some of the big name players, it's time to take another look at the projected standings and where the Diamondbacks stand.
When we last took a look on February 8th, just prior to the start of spring training, the Diamondbacks were projected to win about 84 games, give or take. That trailed the Dodgers by about 11 games, but put them as the number two NL Wild Card, and several games ahead of both the Padres and Giants in the NL West.
Since that time, the Giants and Padres have made significant additions to their rosters, improving their win projections. The Giants added Jorge Soler, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell via free agency. The Padres traded for Dylan Cease. As a result, they've narrowed the gap, but haven't passed the D-backs in projected wins.
The tables below take win projections from three sources. Baseball Prospectus' Pecota Projections, Fangraphs Depth Chart Projections, and ATC Projections, which are also available on Fangraphs' Playoff odds page. Each system inputs their player projections into a simulations program and runs thousands if not 100's of thousands of simulations.
The numbers shown are the median results of those simulations, not a prediction. Some teams of course can and will vastly over or underperform their median win projection. Injuries, breakouts and collapses will happen, and in fact the simulations include those range of results too. These projections are non-biased, objective statistical projections. Subjective opinion is not part not part of the equation. That's not to say that following your "gut" or intuitive sense isn't warranted, or half the fun, at the very least. These projections simply serve as a baseline or a starting point.
NL West
Jack Sommers
The Dodgers are clearly in a tier by themselves in the NL West, projecting a full 13 games better than the Diamondbacks. The D-backs still hold a slim projection advantage over the Giants of 0.8 games, and 2.6 over the Padres. The only team in the division projected to be under .500 are the Rockies, who look to be a very weak team. Of course winning the division is not the only way to make the playoffs in the modern game.
National League Composite Projections
Jack Sommers
In the above table you can see the Braves are projected above even the Dodgers. The Cardinals take the NL Central, and the Phillies, D-backs and Giants are the three Wild Card teams. That said, the gap between Phillies and the Padres is just 3.9 games. In other words, the NL is very tightly bunched in the second tier of contenders. None of the Mets, Brewers, Marlins or Reds can be counted out completely however. In all likelihood there appears to be only three teams in the NL, the Rockies, Nationals and Pirates, that have little or no chance to compete for a Wild Card spot.
American League Composite Projections
Jack Sommers
The Astros and Yankees appear to be a clear tier ahead of the rest of the American League, but not nearly as strong as the Braves and Dodgers. There is a tight group of six teams in the next tier, but the Twins look like the class of the AL Central. The AL East again shapes up to be a very tightly contested division, as does the AL Wild Card race. The World Champion Rangers' projections lag behind, but many pundits will cite the Bruce Bochy factor as a subjective data point in their favor to beat their projections.
MLB Composite Projections
MLB Composite Standings
Jack Sommers
Wrapping things up with the entire MLB table presented in one view, there are a couple of interesting takeaways. Once you get past the two big gorillas in the room of Atlanta and LA, seven of the next eight strongest projections belong to American League teams. The D-backs rank of fourth in the NL, but drop all the way to 11th for all of MLB.
