Where Does Zac Gallen Stand in the National League Cy Young Race?
One of the key story lines in the Diamondbacks 2022 season has been Zac Gallen and his vault into stardom. The 27-year-old starting pitcher is in the midst of a breakout campaign that includes a 44 1/3 consecutive inning scoreless streak that is the 7th longest in Major League Baseball history. In 29 starts this season, Gallen is 12-3 with a 2.46 ERA and a 180/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 172 innings.
Despite not being selected as an All-Star due to a bad run of starts to close out the first half, Gallen has been one of the best pitchers in the National League. What makes him difficult to hit is his ability to expertly command four plus offerings to any part of the strike zone. Most of the time, he'll only need three to mow down opposing lineups. On days he has a really good feel for the curveball, Gallen can put up some really impressive strikeout totals.
One such example is his last start, in which he outdueled another Cy Young contender in Julio Urías at Dodger Stadium. Facing the toughest lineup in baseball, Gallen easily navigated through them for just one run in eight innings and struck out 13. He's always pitched well against LA, with a 2.30 ERA in nine career starts against the Dodgers, but this year he's been exceptional. In two starts, the Dodgers have mustered up just one run on three hits while striking out 18 times in 14 innings.
Even with his strong run of starts, Gallen still finds himself on the outside looking in for the Cy Young. The frontrunner this season is Marlins ace Sandy Alcántara, who was traded to the Marlins alongside Gallen as part of the Marcell Ozuna trade. Alcántara's 220.1 innings pitched leads MLB starters, 20 more than the next highest total, and his 2.32 ERA is second in the NL behind Urías. While he doesn't put up impressive strikeout totals on a rate basis, that level of run prevention while averaging seven innings a start is worth rewarding.
With Alcántara the favorite to win the award, the question shifts to whether or not Gallen will be a finalist for the award. The answer is yes, as Gallen ranks in the Top 5 amongst National League starters in ERA (2.46), FIP (2.89), WHIP (0.89), Hits/9 IP (5.76), Strikeouts/9 IP (9.42), and HR/9 IP (0.63) entering play on September 28th according to Baseball-Reference.com. Gallen also fares well with Win Probability stats, as he ranks fourth amongst NL pitchers with 4.0 WPA, but also Situational Wins Saved, which takes a sum of the player's win probability added and divides it by leverage index (WPA/LI). Gallen ranks second at 4.1, just behind Alcántara's mark of 4.2.
Breaking down Gallen's ridiculous second half, batters are just hitting .141/.190/.195 in 280 plate appearances with 91 strikeouts to just 15 walks. That is a .385 OPS, a strikeout rate of 32.5%, and a strikeout to walk ratio north of 6.00. There is some good fortune in batted ball outcomes, as opposing hitters are managing just a .211 average on balls in play in the second half against Gallen, but pitchers can create a bit of their own good luck by hitting their spots.
Here's how I'd rank the top five NL Cy Young finalists with just a week left in the season:
All Stats Found on Baseball-Reference.com
Michael McDermott
There will be some stiff competition for a finalist spot, with Carlos Rodón and Max Fried also in the conversation. It may all come down to how Gallen's last two starts turn out. Among that list of pitchers, I would only take Alcántara and Fried ahead of Gallen. Fried slightly edges out Gallen in innings pitched, wins above replacement, and park-adjusted ERA. The gap between the two pitchers is so small that how their final two respective starts go may determine the order in the voting.
With all eyes on his matchup against AL Cy Young frontrunner Justin Verlander, it will be an opportunity for the D-backs ace to show voters why he's worthy of being in the mix for a finalist.
