Diamondbacks Top Prospects #16: RHP Bryce Jarvis
Name: Bryce Jarvis
Age: 24
Position: Starting Pitcher
Acquired: 2020 MLB Draft, 1st Round (18), $2.65M signing bonus
Tools: Fastball 50, Curveball 50, Slider 55, Changeup 60, Command 40, Overall 45
Jarvis' fastball still sits mid 90s with a bit of arm-side run although his stuff backed up compared to where he was pre-draft when he was regularly hitting 96-97 MPH. He already has a strong feel for a changeup and two separate breaking balls, even though he didn't see it in the bottom line results with Amarillo.
ETA: 2024
Risk: High
2022 Overview
After a decent debut season with High-A Hillsboro and Double-A Amarillo, Jarvis hit some real adversity in 2022. He struggled most of the season in one of the most difficult run environments, in both the league and home ballpark, as evidenced by his 8.27 ERA in 106.2 innings across 25 starts. Home runs were an issue, as Jarvis surrendered 2.28 per nine innings pitched and it led to a lot of big innings thanks to an 11% walk rate and short starts.
2023 Outlook
The hope is the poor bottom line numbers for Jarvis serves as a wake up call, as he'll need to make significant improvements in 2023. The first is reducing a walk rate from his 2022 mark of 11.9%, which is too high for a starting pitcher. The key will be getting ahead of hitters so he isn't forced to groove a fastball over the plate, which may be a reason behind the high home run rate. Should Jarvis fail to make an improvement in that area, the Diamondbacks front office needs to consider converting him to a reliever.
He will open up 2023 once again in Double-A Amarillo, although the clock is ticking. He'll be Rule 5 eligible after the season and as a former first round pick that's a year away from the majors he'll get a spot on the 40-man roster.
MLB Projection
I'm still bullish on Jarvis developing into a starter given the repertoire when he's able to command it. However he has not been able to command the ball the same in the pros than he did in college where he could blow away hitters. He's still a guy with four average or better offerings, but the key is getting ahead and staying out of hitter's counts. As mentioned above, 2023 will be a key year in determining if he's a starter or reliever long term. If he is still falling behind hitters, leading to a high rate of walks and home runs, then they need to convert him into a reliever and see how much if he can stay consistently at the 96-97 MPH velocity he topped out at in college.
