Diamondbacks Top Prospects #23: RHP Joe Elbis
Name: Joe Elbis
Age: 19
Position: Starting Pitcher
Acquired: International Free Agent, July 2019
Tools: Fastball 45, Curveball 50, Slider 45, Changeup 55, Command 55, Overall 40
Elbis' fastball sits in the low 90s and tops out at 94. At his current 6'1" 170 pound frame, there may be more in the tank as he fills out. He's able to throw all four of his pitches effectively for strikes to both sides of the plate, allowing each individual offering to play up a bit more than their individual grades.
ETA: 2024
Risk: Very High
2022 Overview
Elbis was assigned to Low-A Visalia and made only three starts before his season was cut short due to injury. On April 26th, he was placed on the 7-day injured list with shoulder inflammation and never came back. He was later transferred to the 60-day IL in June. What could have been a big springboard year instead resulted in a lost year of opportunities. There's no further news about his shoulder and if the injury required surgery to fix versus rest and rehab.
2023 Outlook
Assuming Elbis is able to make a full recovery and be a full participant in minor league camp this spring, he has a chance to make up for lost time. Entering his age 20 season he'll still be young for Low-A in 2023. With a solid start to the season he should be promoted to High-A Hillsboro. Given that he's eligible for the Rule 5 Draft after the 2023 season, the team will likely be aggressive with his promotions. A successful year would be defined as making it to and pitching well in Hillsboro.
MLB Projection
Given the combination of a lack of elite stuff with a strong track record of throwing strikes, Elbis is likely more valuable as an innings-eater in the bottom of the rotation or a long reliever. There is still a lot of projectability left in his frame, so perhaps there may be more future velocity. Any bump in velocity completely changes his projection from a possible to a likely starter in the big leagues.
