Drey Jameson: The D-backs' Most Underrated Prospect?
Despite not ranking in Baseball America or MLB Pipeline's Top 100 list, Drey Jameson brings an interesting profile to the table. Armed with a fastball that can touch 100 MPH, a slider that generates a lot of whiffs, and the confidence to succeed in the majors, the 25-year-old right-hander is a key player in both the short and long term.
Jameson ranks fifth on my list of Top 10 prospects in the organization and is my pick to win the final Opening Day rotation spot out of Spring Training over Ryne Nelson. Due to his explosive stuff, he has the floor of a high-leverage arm in the backend of the bullpen and the the ceiling of a future ace. His 4-seamer can touch 100 MPH, as we saw last spring, and his 2-seamer has a strong movement profile in the mid 90s. Those three pitches accounted for 87.2% of the pitches he threw in the big leagues, but refinement in command or development of his curveball and/or changeup could be key for Jameson to reach his ceiling.
The biggest standout trait for the generously listed 6'0" 165 starter is his confidence and competitiveness. Even though he has only four big league starts, he has the body language of someone who belongs. His makeup was tested in his second big league start, as he had to deal with a tough Dodgers lineup in one of the most intimidating road environments at Dodger Stadium. Jameson allowed just two runs in six innings, with that showing he has the mental makeup and pitching acumen necessary to be a successful starter in the big leagues.
In his four starts, the young flamethrower went 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA and a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio in 24.1 innings. On the surface, that seems to be a very successful debut although there are concerns about his ability to repeat. Based on exit velocity data, batters were able to make loud contact against his fastballs. Looking at his heat maps, it appears the problem is an issue with location and not stuff.
Drey Jameson Heat Map (4-Seam Fastball and Sinker)
At the current stage of his career, Jameson is more of a stuff over command pitcher. he can improve the batted ball results by landing the ball more to the arm side of the plate instead of the heart. That will allow him to get more whiffs on both fastballs or induce weak contact.
His best pitch is a two-plane slider which generated a whiff on 46% of the swings on the pitch. Jameson locates it well to glove side of the plate and at the knees, which makes it doubly effective when hitters sit on his upper 90s fastballs. The Dodgers learned the hard way how devastating the pitch was after aggressively sitting on his high velocity fastball. When he has both fastballs and the slider working on a given start, Jameson can easily mow through opposing lineups. The fastball and slider combined for 87.2% of his pitches in his first call-up, which isn't unusual.
In order to reach his ceiling of a future ace, he will need to continue to add to that repertoire. That means continued development of his curveball and changeup, which he only threw 49 times in his four starts. The curveball is more developed than his changeup, showing the ability to land it in the zone for called strikes. The changeup is a distant fifth pitch, as Jameson has struggled to land the pitch down in the zone. He would only need to be able to utilize either one of the two pitches to round out his arsenal.
2023 will be a big year in determining Jameson's long term future with the D-backs. The biggest issues holding him back is command of his fastball and finding a third pitch after the fastball and slider. With his strong work ethic and Brent Strom's tutelage, Jameson may very well deliver on the promising talent that made him a first round selection three years ago.
