Dodgers Dustin May Tommy John Comeback Includes One New Nasty Pitch

Dodgers pitcher Dustin May's pure "stuff" has always been outstanding. He throws a sinker in the high-90s with great movement, a cutter in the mid-90s that moves the opposite direction, and a curveball in the low-80s that has shown flashes of brilliance.

So in his first few seasons, it was always a little frustrating to see a guy with that stuff unable to full capitalize on it and find the success it seemed like he should have.

One obvious issue was May's relative ineffectiveness against left-handed hitters, who hold a career .757 OPS compared to the .501 OPS righties have facing May. His strikeout rate is actually a little higher against lefties, but everything else is notably worse. His walk rate against lefties is more than four times the rate versus righties (10.2 percent to 2.4 percent). He has allowed a batting average 62 points higher and an on-base percentage 111 points higher to lefties. And the biggest difference is in slugging percentage, with a whopping 145-point difference (.425 from lefties, .280 from righties).

As J.P. Hoornstra reports in the Orange County Register, May's pitch mix was just too predictable and easy to prepare for.

In layman’s terms, May threw everything fast – so fast, it became a potential weakness. The degrees of velocity separating his two favorite pitches, his sinker (95-99 mph) and his cutter (91-95), were small enough that a major league hitter could incorrectly guess which pitch was coming and still make contact. The main challenge was anticipating May’s curveball, regularly clocked in the low 80s, which he only threw 10% of the time.

Paired with command of each pitch, that repertoire is more than enough to succeed in the major leagues. But it’s exploitable, at least to a hitter who comes prepared.

If you're a righty who struggles to get lefties out, the answer is almost always a changeup. May had a changeup early in his career, but it wasn't very effective and he lacked confidence in it, so he rarely threw it. Recognizing his relative weakness against lefties and with a lot of time off recovering from Tommy John surgery, May used that time to work on finding a changeup he could throw effectively and with confidence.

“I didn’t really have a whole lot of confidence with (the pitch) before surgery, so my thought process … after surgery was, I want to start throwing it as soon as possible,” he said, “so if I end up throwing it, I want to have as much confidence behind it as I could.”

The results have been good, in a very small sample size. May threw just three changeups in his first start back last weekend, but one of them was a beautiful 86-mph fader that struck out JJ Bleday swinging. And simply having the pitch in his arsenal will force hitters to prepare for all four pitches, which will make all four better.

“He’s throwing his cutter up, getting it up pretty well, which I think is the key with the cutter to lefties,” [Austin] Barnes said. “It’s not a fun pitch getting in on the hands. It kind of opens things up a lot to the other side of the plate, which will help the changeup.”

May has always had the "stuff." The changeup might be what puts him over the top.