Analysis: Are Mariners Legit Contenders to Land Luis Castillo?
The Mariners should absolutely be talking to the Reds about star pitcher Luis Castillo; and according to The Athletic's Jim Bowden, they have engaged in conversations. Castillo would instantly fulfill the long-established desire by general manager Jerry Dipoto to add "an arm that would pitch closer to the top of [Seattle's] rotation than the bottom."
The 29-year old righty certainly fits that description. He enters July 13 with a 2.92 ERA, a 3.37 xERA, 3.04 FIP and a 3.32 xFIP. He also boasts a career 53 percent ground ball rate while still maintaining more than a strikeout per inning.
Castillo is not a rental, so whichever team winds up landing him will control him through the 2023 season.
On the surface, Castillo checks all the boxes; and if the Mariners are serious about ending their 20-year playoff drought, he's exactly the type of player they should be aggressively pursuing. But Bowden's speculation does indeed have its flaws.
Bowden speculates that "Seattle has the pitching to get this deal done."
That statement is, in and of itself, a bit problematic. The Mariners aren't going to trade Logan Gilbert or George Kirby for Castillo. This leaves Emerson Hancock as the best arm in the organization and his injury history has knocked some of the shine off his prospect status. Other interesting arms such as Levi Stoudt and Adam Macko, two pitchers the Reds were reportedly interested in this spring, have battled inconsistencies and injuries as well.
It's not as though these arms carry no value, but if pitching is the primary concern for the Reds, several other teams (most notably the Dodgers) who have already expressed interest in Castillo can and likely will have the arms the Mariners can't match.
In addition, it's important to note the Mariners are a notoriously tight-lipped organization. Look at the recent acquisitions of Carlos Santana, Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez. Deals seemingly happen at random and there is rarely any hint of a deal being done before the team announces it themselves.
Given Seattle's relatively leak-proof front office, it seems reasonable to believe that Bowden isn't getting information from the Mariners, but either speculating or getting info from outside sources who could benefit from the spreading of these rumors.
The Mariners did talk to the Reds this offseason about their arms. They swung the Winker and Suárez deal with them. And we heard on Tuesday that the two sides have even discussed infielder Brandon Drury.
There is plenty of smoke to suggest that Bowden's belief that the Mariners are seriously interested in Castillo is legitimate. But like all things trade-related this time of year, we must consider the entire picture when deciphering legitimate rumors from rampant speculation.
