Analysis: Tennessee OF Drew Gilbert Would Be Great Pick by Mariners in 2022 MLB Draft
Tennessee left-handed outfielder Drew Gilbert is one of my favorite players in this year’s draft class. While he is 5-foot-9 and 185 pounds, Gilbert makes up for his lack of size with plus bat speed.
This past season, he slashed .362/.455/.673 with 21 doubles, four triples and 11 home runs. He also walked more than he struck out (33 BBs vs 32 SOs). In the clubhouse, his teammates at Tennessee love him. On the surface, there is a lot to like about Gilbert, so let's dig deeper.
MLB teams do not draft based on need; they draft based on a combination of draft slot values and who they think is the best fit for their organization’s player development program's strengths.
From 2018 to 2020, the Mariners took three college pitchers with their first three picks. They have shown success developing college pitchers, with two of those three picks, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, debuting for the team and the third, Emerson Hancock, soon to follow.
That wave of picks is most familiar to Mariners fans, but the two Jerry Dipoto-era first-round picks before them were Kyle Lewis in 2016 and Evan White in 2017. Seattle has shown a track record of picking college-level outfielders (Lewis) and high-floor athleticism (White)—both of which are traits Gilbert possesses.
The hope for the Mariners is that they have too many good outfielders, and right now they do not. There is no guarantee that Jarred Kelenic becomes a consistent major-league contributor (I think he will), nor is it a guarantee that Lewis, Mitch Haniger and Jesse Winker are on the team in a year or two.
Seattle does not yet have its everyday outfield of the future locked down, especially without many quality outfield prospects close to MLB-ready. Gilbert could be a young, controllable and long-term answer to pair with Julio Rodríguez in the outfield.
Gilbert projects to be an average defensive centerfielder and would be a plus defender in a corner outfield spot with his 60/70-grade arm, above-average athleticism and decent instincts. He is a good enough athlete to the point where he should give positive defensive value out of center for most of his career, but he ultimately projects as a corner outfielder. He isn’t the best runner, but still grades out as at least a 50 by every major draft outlet.
The bat has more of a complex evaluation. His plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills are a plus; his chase rate was 15 percent (or 83rd percentile) while his zone swing was a healthy 78 percent and zone contact was 89 percent this spring. He also ran only a 19 percent whiff rate. This is a great combination of swing decisions and contact skills; Gilbert fits the preferred "control-the-zone" the Dipoto regime covets.
Gilbert also has shown some of the best exit velos in baseball, including a 99th percentile in-game max exit velo of 111.4. However, his swing is not as conducive to fly balls. While he has a high hard contact rate and high exit velos, he has a very flat bat path. So despite his 60-grade raw power, he only hit 11 home runs last year.
While a flat bat path is not the worst (players like Ty France excel despite flat bat paths), it does present an obstacle for his development: is it worth taking a long-term corner outfielder with fringe present game power? Is this just another Zach DeLoach?
Given the helium of Gilbert’s name up draft boards, I reckon this is something many teams think is fixable. If he is selected by the Mariners this year, my guess would be that Dipoto and Scott Hunter see a lot they like, especially since Gilbert is less of a guarantee to contribute than other “safer” college pitchers who would likely be available.
