History Suggests Mariners Need to Go At Least .500 on Current Road Trip
After blowing out the Athletics to the tune of an 8-2 final on Tuesday night, the Mariners are off to a good start on their current six-game road trip. But history suggests they will need to at least win two more games in order to keep their postseason aspirations alive, despite how relatively young the season still is.
Since the beginning of the wild-card era in 1995, only two teams have made the playoffs after starting the year with the same or worse record as the Mariners' current mark of 30-39: the 2005 Astros (30-39) and the 2013 Dodgers (29-40).
By the end of this road trip, Seattle will be nearing the halfway point of the season at 74 games played. Therefore, the maximum amount of wins and losses it can head back home with are 35 and 44, respectively.
Over the past 27 years, the most losses of any eventual playoff team at the 74-game mark is 42, recorded by the 2013 Dodgers. The 1995 Yankees, 2005 Astros and 2008 Dodgers also sat at 40 losses. So if the Mariners fall short of a 3-3 road trip, their playoff hopes will essentially rely on them being able to accomplish something that has never been done before.
Of course, with the recent implementation of a third wild-card team in both leagues, the odds of doing so have never been higher. But Seattle still finds itself looking up an incredibly tall mountain to climb.
The Mariners have 24 games to go until the All-Star break on July 18. Interestingly, only six of those will come against teams with a current winning percentage of .500 or better: the Padres and Blue Jays.
So there is certainly a prime opportunity for Seattle to make up some ground, though it will need to go at least 17-7 during that stretch to get back above .500. Only 10 teams have headed into All-Star week with a losing record and gone on to make the postseason since 1995.
