Looking Back at How Mariners Addressed Third Base During Offseason
Kyle Seager launched a personal-best 35 home runs in 2021, but with that came a career-high 24 percent strikeout rate, a sub-100 wRC+, a .285 on-base percentage and diminishing defense. Additionally, his relationship with the Mariners' top brass had further strained in the public eye and sources claim that, while he was revered as a leader in the clubhouse, some teammates and staff were left with a bad taste in their mouth after he allegedly attempted to convince younger players to not take the COVID-19 vaccine over the course of the season.
All of this made the decision to decline his $20 million club option easy for Seattle, leaving the organization to find a new third baseman for the first time in roughly a decade. Seager went on to retire shortly thereafter while general manager Jerry Dipoto and company scoured every corner of the trade and free agency markets for a replacement.
Although more options were considered, the Mariners' search brought them to three primary targets: then-Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman and free agents Kris Bryant and Trevor Story. All three, however, came with serious concerns.
Chapman was a little over a year removed from hip surgery, his offensive numbers had steadily declined following his MVP bids back in 2018 and 2019 and he was going to require a substantial prospect return via trade. Story was a shortstop and wanted to stick there despite having a shoulder issue that gave pause to his entire market; plus, there were questions as to how his bat would perform away from Coors Field.
Bryant was arguably the "safest" pick of the bunch, but his desire for a lucrative long-term contract at the age of 30 scared potential suitors away. In order to get such a deal, he had to sign with a rebuilding Rockies team that just traded away perennial All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado and was prepared to lose Story to free agency. On top of the jarring seven-year, $180 million price tag, Bryant's contract also came with a full no-trade clause—an absolute non-starter for Seattle and other interested clubs.
Meanwhile, Chapman had been traded to the Blue Jays for 2021 first-round draft pick Gunnar Hoglund, infielder Kevin Smith and left-handed pitchers Zach Logue and Kirby Snead. Talks between Story's camp and the Mariners didn't pick up much coming out of the lockout, with the shortstop's reluctance to get vaccinated reportedly becoming a major hangup in all negotiations. He eventually signed a six-year, $140 million contract with the Red Sox, but not before Dipoto and Seattle's front office entirely moved on.
Unable to wait any longer, the Mariners struck a major trade with the Reds on March 14. The deal was headlined by All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker, who was also accompanied to Seattle by third baseman Eugenio Suárez for left-handed pitcher Brandon Williamson, right-handed pitcher Justin Dunn, outfielder Jake Fraley and a player to be named later, which turned out to be right-handed pitching prospect Connor Phillips.
Suárez was initially viewed as a "throw-in" by Cincinnati in order to limit team payroll, clearing roughly $11 million off its books in each of the next three seasons. It also helped Seattle lower the cost of acquisition for Winker, who had statistically been one of baseball's best hitters in 2021.
But while Suárez's arrival gave the Mariners a third baseman with more of a track record than Abraham Toro, he was a hard sell to a fanbase saddened by Seager's departure. Suárez had struggled mightily from 2020 onward, slashing .198/.286/.428 in his last full season. That said, he did finish out 2021 with a league-best 220 wRC+ across September and October, cranking eight home runs and slashing .370/.460/.808 in that time.
Rather than a simple case of regression, a brutal bout with COVID-19 near the start of the pandemic and a shoulder injury appeared to have been the biggest culprits of Suárez's previous struggles. That, as well as his red-hot finish to the 2021 campaign, gave the Mariners hope for a potential rebound this year.
Their gamble paid off and then some.
Through 92 games, the veteran third baseman has slashed .239/.336/.440 with 16 home runs, 50 RBI, an 11.7 percent walk rate, a 127 wRC+, a 2.4 fWAR and greatly improved defense. Here's how he stacks up against Chapman, Bryant and Story:
| Eugenio Suárez | Matt Chapman | Trevor Story | Kris Bryant | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
PA | 393 | 340 | 342 | 142 |
AVG | .239 | .227 | .221 | .302 |
OBP | .336 | .300 | .289 | .366 |
SLG | .440 | .428 | .423 | .460 |
HR | 16 | 15 | 15 | 4 |
RBI | 50 | 45 | 58 | 12 |
K% | 31.6% | 25.6% | 30.7% | 14.1% |
BB% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% |
wRC+ | 127 | 102 | 93 | 119 |
OAA | 1 | -1 | 9 (at 2B) | -1 |
fWAR | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
AAV | $11 million | $12 million | $23.3 million | $26 million |
While Suárez is running a career-high strikeout rate, he's seen positive ticks up in almost every major statistical category in 2022 and is providing better value than Chapman, Story and Bryant for a fraction of the assets. Bryant, of course, holds the best slash line of the four names listed above, but he's missed 44 games—30 of which resulted in a loss for the Rockies—and didn't hit his first home run in the purple and black until July 5.
The Mariners have been able to enjoy the most immediate success of the four players and will not be hamstrung by a massively expensive long-term commitment in the end. Even if Suárez's production falls off a cliff in 2023, Seattle will still have made the right choice in not giving Bryant or Story the world, nor meeting Oakland's significant ask for Chapman.
