Mariners Enter Wednesday's Rubber Match vs. Astros in Position to Win Fourth Consecutive Series
The Mariners have an opportunity to break new ground, heading into Wednesday's rubber match against the Astros needing a win to secure their fourth series victory in a row. If successful, this would be the first time in 2022 they have accomplished such a feat. But while their odds of doing so appear favorable on paper, there are a few caveats that could swing things in the opposite direction.
Winning an emotional series opener on Monday and falling in game two thanks to a marvelous performance from Houston right-handed pitcher Justin Verlander, Seattle will hand the reins over to its best starter, righty Logan Gilbert, and face a pitcher it has found great success against this season. That would be fellow right-hander José Urquidy, who's surrendered 11 runs on 20 hits to Mariners hitters in two games (8.2 innings).
It should be noted, however, that both of those games—7-2 and 6-0 wins for Seattle—were played at T-Mobile Park. Urquidy has generally been dreadful on the road this year, but his numbers at home have been far better. Up to this point, he has tallied 16 strikeouts and issued just three walks while giving up a trio of runs in 18.1 innings pitched at Minute Maid Park. In his career, the 27-year old has limited the Mariners to a .220/.278/.420 team slash line when pitching at his home stadium.
Gilbert, meanwhile, will be making his third career start down in Houston. The first of which went horribly, resulting in a rookie Gilbert being jumped for a whopping nine earned runs on eight hits in 4.2 innings pitched. He actually went a third of an inning shorter his next time around, but overall fared much better to the tune of just two earned runs surrendered on six hits with a quintet of strikeouts. With that said, Gilbert was a different pitcher at the time, mostly operating with just one relatively trustworthy pitch—his fastball—in his arsenal.
Refining his toolset during the offseason, Gilbert is off to a great start in 2022. Although he has naturally regressed a bit from the top-shelf production that netted him American League Pitcher of the Month honors back in April, he has allowed just one run to score over his last 15 innings of work, which includes seven scoreless against the Astros on May 28.
Gilbert has also been a tick better on the road than at home, running a 1.96 ERA and 3.40 FIP in 41.1 innings away from the Pacific Northwest. Opponents are slashing just .185/.257/.318 against him as the home team, driving in nine earned runs on 28 hits while striking out 25.7 percent of the time.
Clearly, something will have to give for either Seattle or Houston to come out with the victory. But if Gilbert keeps chugging along and the confines of Minute Maid Park don't greatly impact the Mariners' approach against Urquidy, they should be able to keep their series win streak alive and head back to T-Mobile Park—a place they are 12-10 and hitting for a league-high 134 wRC+ at—just five games under .500 and on a roll.
