Baltimore Orioles Predicted to Sign Phillies Ace

The Baltimore Orioles could be in the market for veteran pitching and Aaron Nola could fit the bill.

The Baltimore Orioles have a projected rotation built on young talent, with Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells all expected back. 

But, with Kyle Gibson hitting free agency, the Orioles could be in the market for a veteran ace to help them get further in the playoffs.

In a piece in Sports Illustrated, the site ranked the top 50 free agents this season and then predicted which team would end up with the free agent.

In the case of the Orioles, they were attached to one of the best free-agent pitchers on the market — Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola.

That would be a tremendous get for a young Orioles team that is hoping to go further than the American League Division Series. The Orioles were swept by the eventual world champion Texas Rangers in three games after winning 101 games and claiming the AL East title.

In Nola, the Orioles would be signing a pitcher who has proven durable over the years, as he’s made 30 or more starts in each of the last five full seasons. He has a 90-71 career record with a 3.72 ERA and 1,582 strikeouts.

Aside from Nola’s reliability, SI made other points about Nola’s fit with the Orioles, including some concerns based on 2023:

Nola’s strikeout rate dipped to 25.5%, while his home run rate spiked to a career-worst 1.49 per nine innings—somewhat concerning for a player entering his age-31 season—but any decline should be a gradual one given his consistent production throughout his career.

In 2023 he went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA with 202 strikeouts and 45 walks. He’s recorded at least 200 strikeouts in each of his last five full seasons. He was a Phillies’ first-round pick in 2014, so he’s a home-grown talent from their farm system.

He was also one of the few players that drew a qualifying offer from their team. Nola could accept that offer and get paid a guaranteed $20 million with Philadelphia in 2024.

But, this being his first time testing free agency, he’s expected to get a multi-year deal.

Adding him to a young Orioles rotation would be a meaningful addition.