Can the Phillies Overcome the Deadened Baseballs?

During the 2019 Major League Baseball season, there were 6,776 home runs hit between the 30 clubs for the most in MLB history. This is due in part to the "juiced baseballs" that were in play during that season, although MLB has maintained that they were not "intentionally" juiced.

"The 27-page report ultimately concluded that the increase in home run rates in MLB can be attributed to the inconsistent baseball seam heights as well as players embracing launch angle," wrote CBS Sports' Katherine Acquavella in Dec. 2019. "Ultimately, the league's baseballs appeared to be juiced because the seams were producing far less drag. The study concluded that the change wasn't intentional and was because of normal manufacturing variability."

A shortened 2020 season from COVID-19 ultimately brought less home runs, but in 2021, which was played for a full 162 games, only 5,944 home runs were hit league-wide. That's 832 less baseballs leaving the stadium.

That brings us to the 2022 season, where the Philadelphia Phillies currently possess a team batting average of .244, good for seventh in the league. They've scored 111 runs across 25 games and average 4.44 runs per game, good for 10th in MLB.

Their 111 runs are tied for 10th with the San Francisco Giants (14-10), Cleveland Guardians (11-13), and Colorado Rockies (14-10). Meanwhile, division rival New York Mets (18-9) are tied with the Los Angeles Angels (16-10) for most runs scored this season with 120.

Additionally, the Phillies have been hitting the ball hard. According to Baseball Savant, Philadelphia is hitting the ball at a 43.7% clip, fourth behind only the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, and Chicago White Sox. But the Mets, who lead the Phillies by six games in the NL East, have a Hard Hit % of only 33.8, second-to-last in the league. Moreover, Philadelphia's .273 xBA is just second in the league behind the Yankees, who have the best record in MLB at 18-7.

Rhys Hoskins hit a long fly out in the bottom of the 9th inning on Wednesday against the Texas Rangers with the game tied at 0-0 that was caught by Adolis Garcia along the warning track in center field. Per MLB.com's Todd Zolecki, Hoskins hit the ball 105.1 mph and it had an expected batting average of .930. Hoskins threw up his arms in frustration before heading to the dugout for the first out of the inning.

Rhys Hoskins thought he walked it off

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That's pretty much been the story of the 2022 Phillies season thus far; They've been extremely unlucky. And for an offense that was built upon hitting the ball out of the ballpark, the deadened baseballs aren't helping them play their way into a lot of wins, hence their 11-14 record.

However, one could also blame pitching. Philadelphia's 3.90 team ERA is higher than the league-average 3.76, and they've allowed 4.24 runs per game. The Phillies pitching staff has also been BAbip'd to death this season. Teams are batting .295 in that category against them—with many, such as the Mets, capitalizing on soft contact, bloop hits, and errors.

Despite the Mets largely taking advantage of the deadened baseballs, they also lead the league in HBP with 22, causing starter Chris Bassitt to lash out at MLB in a post-game interview on April 26. "MLB has a very big problem with the baseballs—they are bad," Bassitt said. "Everyone knows it. Every pitcher in the league knows it. MLB doesn’t give a damn about it. They don’t care. We have told them our problems with them, they don’t care."

Although watching the Phillies lifeless offense night after night has been frustrating to watch, it's not uncommon around the league right now; Some teams are just getting luckier than others. As far as the Phillies are concerned, they might need to play a bit of small ball in order to pick up some wins, but their hit-for-power offense must be up for the challenge.

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