The Pittsburgh Pirates Turn to Rookie Mitch Keller to End Nine-Game Skid
Mitch Keller's dominance in the minor league's propelled him to the status of Pirates number one prospect, but we have yet to see that level of play from Keller in Pittsburgh. Despite being consistent in his career up until this point, Keller has struggled to string strong outtings together since becoming a fixture in the Pirate rotation. He will look to start that Tuesday night against the Chicago Cubs as the Pirates try to end a nine-game losing streak.
Keller's last start was on 9/17 against the Mariners - a 6-0 loss in which he gave up 2 runs on six hits through 5 innings. While that is by no means the performance we are hoping for from Mitch, he was solid and had the Buccos in a position to win (had there been ANY run support). So, I am calling that a positive outting considering some of Keller's struggles this season.
Oftentimes when a pitcher struggles after making the jump to the big leagues, control is an issue. We saw that with Tyler Glasnow, but Keller's walks per nine innings in the majors has been nearly the same as they were in his six seasons in minor league ball. Keller's problem is that he has literally been hit or miss this season. His hit rate in the majors is 13.6 per nine innings - nearly double what it was in the minors (7.6). So that explains the 7.74 ERA he is posting going into tonight's game.
That's the bad news. The good news is that his strike out numbers are considerably better - 12.1 Ks per nine innings in the majors vs 9.4 in the minors. He's also getting plenty of weakly-hit ground balls. Here's an interesting write-up on Keller that suggests his performance is better than his dismal ERA suggests. Advanced stats indicate that Keller may be trending up.
The key for Keller right now is to throw early strikes and get ahead in the count. When he is even, or when he is behind in the count, batters are hitting over .420 on him. If he can get ahead and keep batters guessing, he's cashing in (as evidenced by his strike out rate).
Mitch Keller should have two more starts this season. I will be looking for improvement on his pitches early in at bats. If he can start at bats stronger, he can return to the force we saw in the minors.