Rangers' Success in 2020 Will Rely on Internal Improvements
Rebuilds are never fun for a franchise. It's a difficult time where the ball club tries to keep the fan base engaged despite losing records on the field. Fans have to say goodbye to long-time favorite players and there isn't the comfort of winning to soften to blow.
The Rangers are coming out of a small rebuild and are poised to contend for a playoff spot in 2020. After three seasons of sub-.500 baseball, the Rangers have restocked their farm system and possess a major league core they can build around this winter.
With the opening of Globe Life Field next season, ownership is willing to shell out more money to invest in the team. The Rangers are already in pursuit of top free agent third basemen Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson. They also have their eyes on the top starting pitchers in the free agent market as well.
If the Rangers can land Rendon or Donaldson, bring in one of the top starters in the market, and maybe address catcher with an affordable veteran, they are set up to be a potential playoff team in 2020. However, help brought in from the outside will only help so much.
The Rangers have to rely on their incumbent players to perform. While 2019 showed a lot of promise from players like Joey Gallo and a pair of stellar pitchers in Mike Minor and Lance Lynn, too many of the Rangers' key players underperformed.
Elvis Andrus has held down shortstop for 11 years and has become an all time fan favorite in Arlington. After two fantastic years in 2016 and 2017, Andrus has turned in two disappointing seasons in 2018 and 2019.
Andrus' performances in 2016-17 led a lot of people to speculate that he may opt out of his contract after 2019 to become a free agent and capitalize on his elevated value. After 2019, it was all but a foregone conclusion he would choose to not opt out and earn his remaining $43.75 million over the next three seasons.
At age 31 and declining value, no team in baseball would offer that contract. Elvis loves playing in Arlington, so let's not pretend that didn't play a factor in staying. Let's also be honest and say that Elvis has to be better in 2020.
It goes without saying, but I would be remiss not to mention Rougned Odor. After earning his contract, Odor has not just performed up to standards, but has been awful for two of the three seasons since inking that new contract.
Odor has a total WAR of 2.0 since 2017, including a -0.4 in 2017 and a -0.3 last season. For the Rangers to be even a playoff contending team, they have to get much better performances from a regular starter in their lineup.
"For us to win a championship, we need significantly better performance out of those spots. That's just being honest," Daniels said of Andrus and Odor in his post-season press conference. "They'll be the first to talk about it; the first to understand what needs to happen."
Another player that has to turn a corner is Nomar Mazara. After four seasons, there has to be improvement in on-field results. As a matter of fact, we expected Mazara to turn a corner in 2018, and then again in 2019.
Mazara's potential is off the charts and Rangers' management still believes in him. He is still only 24 years old, but with only two more seasons of club control left, the Rangers have to decide if he is their right fielder beyond 2021. Mazara has to give them a reason better than a 0.7 WAR in 2019 to do that.
If the Rangers had one or two spots needing to improve on the roster, they could surely be a legitimate playoff team next year. I've brought up three spots that have to improve, and not even mentioned first base or center field. The point I'm trying to make should be quite clear. The Rangers have to be better internally before any outside help can elevate them to a championship-caliber team.
The 2011 Texas Rangers, the best team in franchise history, had six positions (C, 2B, 3B, LF, RF, DH) finish in the top 5 in OPS in all of baseball. The 2019 Rangers: one (LF). They only had to bring in two major free agents (Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli) to help them get to that level. The Rangers had established players in key positions that were performing at a high level. The current version of this team doesn't have that.
Sure, the additions of Rendon/Donaldson, a top-of-the-line pitcher, and a catcher would improve the ball club. But it's irresponsible to think improvement within the organization isn't necessary for contention.
The Rangers could have a potential superstar in Joey Gallo. They could have another all star-caliber player in Mazara if he hits his ceiling. We know what Andrus and Odor are capable of. The Rangers have the talent and believe they have the right manager and coaching staff in place to get what they need from these players.
External help makes the Rangers a good team. Coincidental internal improvement from these players will make the Rangers an American League pennant contender. How close are these players to that? I guess we'll have to wait and see.
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