Rangers Mailbag: Opening Day Roster, Trade Deadline, Michael Conforto Possibility?
We are just over a week away from Opening Day, and the Texas Rangers still have plenty of questions to answer before they take the field in Toronto on April 8.
Here I am to answer some of those questions, based on the latest information out of camp in Surprise, Arizona.
Do you think Jose Trevino gets a spot on the team when the regular season starts?
-Cole Pope (@ColePope12)
This is the most difficult roster spot to predict. Both Jose Trevino and Jonah Heim make excellent cases to back up Mitch Garver. Both are accomplished receivers, elite at stealing strikes and have familiarity with the pitching staff.
Manager Chris Woodward has indicated the one who has a better chance to contribute offensively will probably have the edge. Heim is a switch-hitter and has more power, but Trevino makes more consistent contact and ended up with slightly better numbers last year.
Taking everything into account, along with Trevino having only one option left compared to Heim's two, I believe Trevino ends up winning the spot.
Do Joe McCarthy or Zach Reks make the Opening Day roster?
-Seäger Bombs (@SadRangerBurner)
Most likely not. Zach Reks has already been optioned to the minor leagues, so his chances—barring catastrophic injury—are gone. Joe McCarthy has been very productive in Cactus League play, but is still behind Nick Solak and fellow non-roster invitee (NRI) Jake Marisnick in the depth chart.
In addition, a 40-man roster move would be required to add McCarthy, and there will only be so many of those this spring. I just don't see the Rangers making one for him when NRIs Charlie Culberson, Greg Holland and Matt Bush are far more likely to be added.
Ben Ludeman / Courtesy of the Texas Rangers
Ben Ludeman / Courtesy of the Texas Rangers
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
What are the odds we sign Michael Conforto?
-Chris (@Trapt35)
I understand Jon Heyman said the Rangers are the favorites to sign Michael Conforto on MLB Network recently. However, I still don't buy it. I'm not questioning Heyman or the validity of his report. It's certainly possible. However, I don't think the odds are high.
Yes, the Rangers have the payroll flexibility to add him. Texas also has some interest in the player himself. However, it would require the forfeiture of their fourth-round draft pick. Remember, the Rangers already surrendered their second- and third-round picks when they signed Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. Picking third overall then not picking again until the fifth round would be challenging for a team on the tail end of a rebuild.
Now, if the price tag has dropped considerably where the Rangers believe losing a fourth-round pick is worth the investment, then maybe they do pull this off. In addition, it further complicates the outfield situation really close to Opening Day.
At this moment in time, I'm still very skeptical. But I've been wrong before and will be again in the future.
If the Rangers are in contention still around end of June, do they ramp up and try to compete this year?
-Michael Halokowski (@MikeD86)
Looking at Jon Daniels' track record, he hasn't shied away from adding when the team is close to contention. And based on the aggression the club displayed in free agency, it looks like Chris Young will remain aggressive once their contention window opens.
There are obviously a lot of variables to consider. Why are the Rangers competing in late June? Has Nathaniel Lowe broken out into the slugging first baseman the Rangers envision him to be? Is Adolis García for real? Are Dane Dunning and Taylor Hearn both legitimate rotation pieces? Did the Rangers unlock Spencer Howard? There are many more questions that need answered before the Rangers stomp on the gas pedal and blow past the contention threshold.
At this moment in time—which is insanely early—if the Rangers are buyers at the trade deadline, I would predict adding depth to the pitching staff rather than any splashy acquisitions. I think the absolute earliest everyone expects this team to be competitive is 2023.
What sort of trade deadline moves do you see the Rangers making this year? Obviously the lineup is massively improved from last year but it seems like there's still a ways to go with the pitching staff.
-Mitch Garver & Ha-Seong Kim Enthusiast (@theconstantlaw) and several others
Several of you asked about the trade deadline. What's up with that?! We're not even at Opening Day yet!
As I addressed in the last question, if the Rangers do add at the deadline, I believe the rotation may be the key area of focus. However, if the opportunity presents itself to deepen the lineup at a reasonable cost, I'd bet they consider pulling the trigger.
Overall, I don't believe the Rangers will be big buyers or sellers at the deadline. They don't have a lot of big assets to sell. Maybe if Greg Holland is this year's Ian Kennedy, they flip him like they did with Kennedy in the Spencer Howard trade. Maybe other veterans who are on one-year deals could be flipped, but they likely won't provide a big return.
If they are buyers, I'd be surprised if you see them part with top prospects as part of an impact trade. I think any sizable additions will be reserved for the offseason, where I believe the pitching staff will be more of a focus like the lineup was this past winter.
Ben Ludeman / Courtesy of the Texas Rangers
Ben Ludeman / Courtesy of the Texas Rangers
Ben Ludeman / Courtesy of the Texas Rangers
Do you see guys like Cole Winn, Ricky Vanasco or Josh Smith getting their feet wet and making an impact this year? Or do you think they let them develop until we’re in our contention window?
-Nic Lasoi (@LasoiNic)
It's a possibility for Cole Winn. If he performs well at Triple-A Round Rock, you could see him in Arlington after the All-Star break.
2023 is probably more realistic for Josh Smith. But with the way he performed in spring training, the Rangers are going to have a close eye on him this season. Woodward wants to see Smith keep his foot down on the gas and play with the same intensity in the minor leagues this season. I can't completely rule out a call-up this year, but I still think 2023 is more likely at this point.
Ricky Vanasco is a very exciting arm, but he won't be in the big leagues this season. He has yet to throw a pitch at the Double- or Triple-A level. It will also be his first season returning from Tommy John surgery. He'll already be limited because of that. There is no reason to rush him. I think it's possible he becomes a legitimate contender for a spot in the 2024 rotation.
I don’t want to put any stock into spring training, but how realistic is it to have a top-five offense this year?
-Optimistic Dallas Mavericks fan (@PurcellaAshten)
Not very realistic. The lineup has surely improved. There is no doubt about that. But take anything that happens in spring training—good or bad—with a grain of salt.
Even if both Lowe and García establish themselves as legitimate pieces moving forward, that's only five of nine hitters. Go look at the projected lineups for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox or Houston Astros. Are the Rangers better than any of those?
The answer is an emphatic "no."
This is a much improved lineup, but the Rangers need more development to take place and add a couple more pieces before we start considering it one of the top five in baseball.
Who do you think will have the best walk up song this season?
-Robyn Hearn (@RobynHearnTV)
I can always rely on Robyn (Taylor Hearn's sister) to provide a fun question.
I had two personal favorites last year: Brock Holt using "Testify" by Needtobreathe and Kolby Allard coming to the mound while Depeche Mode's "Personal Jesus" thumped throughout Globe Life Field. However, I did find myself really looking forward to Adolis García's at-bats when he used "Blinding Lights" by The Weeknd, but he switched it midseason.
This year, I'm going to stick with Allard if "Personal Jesus" is part of his rotation. Such a banger that ages like a fine wine.
