Rangers 2022 Roster Projection 3.0.1: The Seager-Semien Era Begins
From the first time we started projecting the Texas Rangers 2022 Opening Day roster, it was clear we would see its fair share of makeovers throughout the course of the winter. After the Rangers dedicated over half a billion dollars in free agency, this is the largest shakeup thus far.
With Major League Baseball in its first work stoppage in 26 years, the free agent and trade markets are frozen until a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is signed. So this seems like a perfect time to come out with the next version of our 2022 Rangers roster projections.
These projections account for the players currently on the roster, and any potential acquisitions that may happen after the lockout is over and free agency can resume.
Catcher: Jose Trevino
1.0 Prediction: Jose Trevino
2.0 Prediction: Jose Trevino
So far, I've stuck with Jose Trevino as the guy behind the plate, and there is little reason to think any differently.
There was a time during the season where Jonah Heim supplanted Jose Trevino as the primary catcher. But Trevino began the 2021 season as the No. 1 guy, and he finished as the No. 1 guy. This will be a battle in spring training. But for now, all signs still point to Trevino being the go-to guy to start 2022.
While Heim threatens pitchers with a bit more pop in his bat (hitting 10 home runs in 82 games), Trevino edged him in just about every major offensive category, including batting average, on-base percentage, OPS, OPS+, hits, doubles and total bases—all while appearing in only nine more games than Heim.
Trevino and Heim are also neck-and-neck in terms of stealing strikes, with Heim edging Trevino in pitch framing. However, Trevino has a leadership quality that is highly valued by the coaching staff. His rapport with the pitching staff can't go unnoticed either.
That all being said, manager Chris Woodward was very blunt about the lack of offensive output. With over half a billion dollars spent in free agency, the Rangers have sent a strong message that they are out to win games in 2022. Yes, they still have a ways to go until they become legitimate contenders for the American League West crown or a World Series, but the message is clear: players have to prove they can be part of what they are building, or they'll find someone else.
For now, Trevino is the guy.
First Base: Nathaniel Lowe
1.0 Prediction: Nathaniel Lowe
2.0 Prediction: Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe might be the most projectable player returning from the 2021 Rangers. He ranked in the 77th percentile in average exit velocity, 91st percentile in maximum exit velocity, 74th percentile in hard-hit percentage, 90th percentile in walk percentage and 82nd percentile in chase rate.
His two largest weaknesses at the plate were velocity—especially up in the zone—and hitting the ball on the ground far too often (his ground ball percentage of 54.5 percent was seventh-highest in Major League Baseball). However, he improved in both areas over the final several weeks of the season, registering a .873 OPS and .493 slugging percentage in his final 42 games of the season.
All in all, it wasn't a bad year at all for Lowe. It was his first full season as an everyday first baseman in the big leagues, and he finished with a 2.3 bWAR, which was good enough for third-highest by players who ended the season on the roster.
The biggest threat to Lowe at first base is the potential for a blockbuster trade. Prior to the lockout, the Rangers reached out to the Oakland Athletics about what it would take to land All-Star first baseman Matt Olson. While it goes against conventional wisdom for a team on the back end of a rebuild to deal prospects for a big-name player, the Rangers now have their middle infield locked up for at least the next seven years.
Conceivably, the Rangers could build a trade package with Lowe and top-100 prospect Justin Foscue at its center.
At this point, I'm not ready to say the Rangers actually pull off this trade. Lowe is under club control for another five years, and it could be very interesting to see how he could progress under a new hitting regime spearheaded by new bench coach/offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker and new hitting coach Tim Hyers.
Second Base: Marcus Semien
1.0 Prediction: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
2.0 Prediction: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Marcus Semien was the first major domino to fall in the Rangers' free agency plans. Just days before the start of the lockout, the two sides agreed to a seven-year, $175 million contract, all with a plan to add another shortstop from the free agent market. Now, for the first time since Ian Kinsler manned the position, the Rangers have an All-Star-caliber player at second base.
Semien is coming off a season where he slashed .265/.334/.538/.873 with 45 home runs, 102 RBI and finished third in the voting for the American League's Most Valuable Player. It was also is first season after switching from shortstop to second base, and the 31-year-old won a Gold Glove for his performance at the position.
Prior to 2021, Semien also finished third in the AL MVP voting in his breakout season in 2019. He's also been a very durable player, playing at least 155 games in a but one full 162-game season since 2015. Semien also said the switch to second base allowed him to hit better, which could explain him hitting the most home runs in a single season by a second baseman in the history of baseball.
Outside of all the on-field accolades, the Rangers are also getting one of the best clubhouse leaders in the game. The Rangers were very attracted to the veteran leadership Semien can provide a young crop of players as the club pivots toward contention.
Third Base: Josh Jung
1.0 Prediction: Josh Jung
2.0 Prediction: Josh Jung
The season has been over for a couple months, and sometimes perspective changes once you have some time to review information. Yet, I'm still buying in to the Josh Jung hype.
The foot injury set him back, and probably delayed his call to the big leagues by a season. But Jung did nothing but hit along the line at the two top levels of the minor leagues this season. In 78 games between Double-A Frisco and Triple-A Round Rock, Jung slashed .326/.398/.592/.990 with 19 home runs and 61 RBI. It seems he's as ready as he'll ever be for the big leagues.
With a full season of professional baseball under his belt, Jung will go into big-league camp next year with a spot on the Opening Day roster within his grasp. I'm predicting he wins an starting spot outright. With the Rangers adding impact free agents this winter, he'll be coming into a much better situation than the rookies did in 2021.
There is still a chance that the Rangers opt for veteran Isiah Kiner-Falefa to begin 2022 as the everyday third baseman. Remember, it wasn't all that long ago that Kiner-Falefa won a Gold Glove at the hot corner, and he seemed to really find his stride at the plate down the stretch. He'd be a solid bat for the bottom-third of the lineup, who also has experience batting leadoff or second.
If the Rangers don't want to rush Jung to the big leagues, Kiner-Falefa would fill this position just fine.
Shortstop: Corey Seager
1.0 Prediction: Carlos Correa
2.0 Prediction: Carlos Correa
For about 24 hours, Marcus Semien was going to fill this spot in our roster projection. Then the Rangers turned around and double-dipped in the shortstop market, making Corey Seager a Texas Ranger after giving him a franchise-record 10-year, $325 million contract.
Yes, I was conducting the Carlos Correa train in these roster projections, but in version 2.0.1, I said: "Do not be surprised if the Rangers prioritize Corey Seager over the rest of the shortstop class in free agency." It made a lot of sense, given Seager's relationship with manager Chris Woodward. And as it turned out, that played a major factor in Seager's decision to come to Arlington. And while Semien was the first to sign with the Rangers, one signing likely doesn't happen without the other. Both players know it takes more than just one guy to build a winner.
As for Seager, the Rangers are getting someone who they believe will take them to the top of the mountain and eventually win the first World Series in franchise history. During their introductory press conferences, Seager and Semien were described as two "pillars" that the Rangers can build around.
Despite being only 27 years old, Seager has quite a bit to put on his résumé. He has a career .297/.367/.504/.870 slash line, and has registered an OPS of at least .915 three times in his career.
In addition, fans in Arlington witnessed Seager put the Los Angeles Dodgers on his back in the 2020 postseason. MLB created a "bubble" for the playoffs due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and Globe Life Field hosted the National League Championship Series and World Series. In those two series, Seager mashed seven home runs, had an OPS north of 1.200 and was named MVP of both series. In addition, Seager's eight home runs at Globe Life Field (regular season and playoffs) is tied for third in the short history of the Rangers' new home—all before donning a Rangers uniform.
The largest concern about Seager is his injury history. After he was a September call-up in 2015, Seager played 157 games in 2016 and 145 games in 2017. However, the closest he's come to either mark since is 134 games in 2019 (hamstring injury). In 2018, Seager suffered a UCL sprain and Tommy John surgery ended his season after only 26 games. In 2021, he was hit by a pitch that fractured his right metacarpal, and he was limited to 95 games.
Even so, the Rangers are confident Seager is their guy, and there are 325 million reasons why.
Left Field: Seiya Suzuki
1.0 Prediction: DJ Peters
2.0 Prediction: Willie Calhoun
While I'm not entirely confident the Rangers actually pull off a trade for Matt Olson, I do believe they make another addition to the lineup once the lockout is over. The Rangers seem determined to add an outfielder to the roster, and they have shown interest in Japanese free agent Seiya Suzuki.
Suzuki, 27, slashed .319/.436/.640/1.079 with 38 home runs and 88 RBI in 2021, and has a career .943 OPS over nine seasons with the Hiroshima Carp. The Rangers have a history of pursuing players from the Pacific Rim, so their interest should not come as a surprise. In addition, Suzuki could provide some production from the right side of the plate at a cheaper cost than some of the other free agent outfielders.
Of course, there is always concern about how a free agent from overseas will handle the transition to the North American game. Pitchers throw harder in the United States, and a few recent signings from the Pacific Rim have not gone as well as expected. However, Suzuki struck out only 16.2 percent of the time in 2021 (MLB average was 23.2 percent), and he walked 87 times as opposed to striking out 86 times.
There is expected to be a competitive market for Suzuki's services. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel projects Suzuki to ink a four-year, $48 million contract, in addition to a projected $9 million posting fee. That would be a cheaper price tag than some of the more established outfielders on the free agent market, like Nick Castellanos or Kris Bryant. In addition, there is no qualifying offer or draft pick forfeiture to worry about if the Rangers were to sign Suzuki, as opposed to Castellanos, who rejected a qualifying offer (though the new CBA could potentially negate that penalty).
Suzuki was posted on Nov. 22, and like the free agent market, the lockout has frozen his 30-day negotiating window with MLB clubs. Once the lockout is over, he will have about 20 days remaining to decide where he wants to sign.
Center Field: Adolis García
1.0 Prediction: Leody Taveras
2.0 Prediction: DJ Peters
Of the returning players from the 2021 squad, Adolis García is right alongside Nathaniel Lowe and Isiah Kiner-Falefa as the closest thing to a lock for next season. He had arguably the most productive rookie season in Rangers history. However, he still has a bit of proving to do. After a very strong start to the season, García was up and down the rest of the way.
In his first 64 games, García slashed .276/.308/.552/.860 with 20 home runs and 52 RBI. In the 62 games thereafter, he's slashed .214/.280/.399/.679 with nine home runs and 26 RBI. He bounced back a bit over the final month of the season, capturing several Rangers rookie single-season records, but didn't even finish with the highest OPS on the team.
Even so, his overall body of work has earned him another look next season. Right field is the ideal spot for García, and he could even win a Gold Glove there. However, he also played a very strong center field for Texas in 2021, and the Rangers could take advantage of that versatility again in 2022. Manager Chris Woodward would prefer not to do that to García so he could preserve his energy and give him a shot at a Gold Glove. It ultimately depends on how the outfield situation plays out during spring training.
As far as things go with Leody Taveras, it's probably best that he start 2022 at Triple-A Round Rock. He's only 23 years old and clearly still has some things to figure out at the plate. There is no need to rush him. However, he is currently showing some positive signs in the Dominican Winter League, so it's not out of the question that he comes into camp ready to truly compete for an Opening Day roster spot.
Right Field: Kole Calhoun
1.0 Prediction: Adolis García
2.0 Prediction: Adolis García
The Rangers have already made an addition to their outfield, and are really excited about what Kole Calhoun could bring to the table. They love his leadership and style of play, and believe it could be a great example for the younger players on the roster. He is signed to a one-year, $5.2 million deal with a $5.5 million club option for 2023 that does not come with any buyout. It's a decent price for a player who has been productive in recent years.
Calhoun is coming off a 2021 season where health was not on his side. Surgery in April and hamstring injuries afterward limited him to only 51 games, and even those games were played at less than 100 percent. So his .235/.297/.373/.670 slash line may not be a fair barometer for what his production could be in 2022.
In 2019, Calhoun slashed .232/.325/.467/.792 with 33 home runs and 74 RBI in 152 games with the Los Angeles Angels. In the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Calhoun slashed .226/.338/.526/.864 with 16 home runs and 40 RBI in 54 games with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
If the Rangers get the 2019-20 version of Kole Calhoun, or close to it, $5.2 million could be a steal.
Calhoun is currently slated to play right field, though Chris Woodward did not rule out left field. He could very well earn at-bats as the designated hitter as well. Same as with Adolis García, where he ends up depends on any additions the Rangers make to the outfield and how everything plays out in Surprise next spring.
Designated Hitter: Willie Calhoun
1.0 Prediction: Willie Calhoun
2.0 Prediction: Nick Castellanos
Willie Calhoun has had the worst luck of any player I've covered. Granted, I've only covered the Rangers for two seasons, but I can't imagine another player having a worse two-year stretch than Calhoun.
Fair or unfair, 2022 might be Calhoun's last chance. The Rangers' outfield situation is becoming crowded, and could get even more crowded with another free agent signing. Calhoun has to not only stay healthy, but perform while in the lineup. I believe he'll get one more crack at it next spring. The Rangers have loved his bat since they acquired him in the Yu Darvish trade, and they would really like to see everything finally click for Calhoun.
Calhoun can also earn at-bats in left field, especially if they miss out on Seiya Suzuki, Nick Castellanos and Kris Bryant. The Rangers still intend on adding another outfielder, and based off everything else they've said and done this offseason, there's no reason yet to believe they won't get something done.
Opening Day Lineup
- DH Willie Calhoun (L)
- 1B Nathaniel Lowe (L)
- 2B Marcus Semien (R)
- SS Corey Seager (L)
- CF Adolis García (R)
- RF Kole Calhoun (L)
- LF Seiya Suzuki (R)
- 3B Josh Jung (R)
- C Jose Trevino (R)
Bench: C Jonah Heim, INF Isiah Kiner-Falefa, INF Nick Solak, INF Andy Ibáñez
1.0 Prediction: Jonah Heim, Nick Solak, Eli White
2.0 Prediction: Jonah Heim, Nick Solak, Andy Ibáñez, Chris Taylor
Jonah Heim nearly matches Trevino in ability to receive behind the plate and steal strikes for the pitching staff. He may also have the better arm, and has more potential to impact games with the bat. But until that really comes through, Trevino's game-calling and leadership may take precedence.
Isiak Kiner-Falefa has the potential to be one of the best super-utility players in the game of baseball. He has exceptional bat-to-ball skills and hits for a decent average. He is a Gold Glove-caliber infielder and runs the bases really well. Once Kiner-Falefa stopped trying to be more than who he was at the plate, everything really clicked for him. It's possible the Rangers trade him before next season, but for now, he is still locked for a spot on the 2022 squad. His role, however, is not yet determined.
The addition of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien allows guys like Nick Solak and Andy Ibáñez—who are both versatile in their own ways—the opportunity to earn at-bats off the bench. Solak can also earn at-bats in the outfield, and Ibáñez hit well in his first big-league stint, posting a .756 OPS and 1.8 bWAR in only 76 games.
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