2024 NBA Draft: Are We Overthinking Who's Going No. 1?

French center Alexandre Sarr has kept his name near the top of the draft all season long.

With no obvious name claiming the spot of the first overall selection in the 2024 NBA Draft, everyone is seemingly in play.

Cody Williams. Zaccharie Risacher. Matas Buzelis. Alexandre Sarr.

Only one can be the top pick, though, and I'm beginning to wonder if we're all collectively overthinking this.

The last name on my list - Sarr - is the one guy who has stayed around the top three area throughout the season, meaning there's a consensus there that he simply can't drop as the rest of the guys listed.

Williams has seen his name mentioned in the top three and down to the late lottery. Risacher has been mentioned as a candidate to go number one, just as he's been down in the teens. It's a similar story with Buzelis.

Sarr is the one guy we all have a level of trust in to reach a certain level of expectation. At no point has he not been considered a part of the top of the draft, and for good reason. 

At 7-foot-1, with great athleticism and floor spacing capabilities, he's offering a skill set that is tailor-made for the NBA in 2024.

During his season in Australia, playing for the Perth Wildcats, Sarr's Per 36 Minute stats were eye-popping.

19.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.1 blocks, and 2.1 assists per game.

Now, granted, Per 36 numbers are particularly noisy when used on a guy who played 18.0 minutes per game. But it does give you a certain level of understanding of just how productive Sarr was when on the floor.

Add that to the fact that he started his season just a few months after turning 18, and you realize the potential he's in possession of.

This isn't to say he'll hit the NBA as an immediate star, or anything of the sort. There's a good chance he'll be a project, but at least he's a project with tremendous upside.

In a draft where every single prospect seems to have large question marks hovering over them, there aren't anything notable hovering over Sarr.

You wanna complain about his 27.6% accuracy from range? Sure, but how many big men of his size were reliable long-range shooters at that age? Is it even a fair point of criticism?

And from there, what else do you really want to point fingers at?

He rarely fouled. He hit over 70% of his free throws. He almost never turned the ball over. He competed hard.

Alright, so his defense - outside of the blocks - is in need of some work. He's not even 19 yet. I'm sure defensive rotation patterns, and the reading of angles, aren't elements that the rest of the class masters either. 

Of course, Sarr isn't Anthony Davis here. If he was, we wouldn't have talked about anyone but him over the past nine months. Like with everyone else in this class, there are uncertainties.

But I'd argue those uncertainties are small, and border on being insignificant, when you factor in the upside, and current production. 

And, finally, the only bar Sarr needs to clear here to become number one is his fellow future draftees. We can sit here and talk about how he's not Davis, or not Karl-Anthony Towns, or not Victor Wembanyama, but that flat-out does not matter when it all comes down to simply being the best in his own class.

And that is certainly achievable, if not outright likely.

While I've struggled with my Big Board this year (show me someone who hasn't), Sarr still tops it. And if I'm being honest with myself, even when I've flirted with the idea of Risacher, Sarr was never out of mind.

The combination of his skills, the athleticism, the size, and the fluidity with which he plays is overpowering in my thought process.

That doesn't mean he'll realize his potential, nor does it mean those skills will all be optimized, but you can say that about every single prospect in the history of the draft. It's always a risk.

I'm banking on the upside. Because if I have the first overall pick, I can't justify thinking in terms of what's safe. I need to swing that bat as hard as I can, and go for the player who down the line can become the best in the class. And the player with the best recipe to become that is, and always have been, Alexandre Sarr. 

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

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