The Case for DaRon Holmes II in the Lottery

The Dayton forward has been excellent for the Flyers for three full seasons – why is he being overlooked in an already tricky draft?

Mar 23, 2024; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Dayton Flyers forward DaRon Holmes II (15) shoots against / Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

For the last three seasons, DaRon Holmes II has been nothing short of dominant, serving as one of the best players to ever come through the Dayton Flyers program, and really, the Atlantic 10 Conference at large.

As Dayton's highest-rated recruit ever signed out of the prep rans, Holmes II, a four-star prospect and top 50 in the country on aggregate, joined Anthony Grant's Flyers squad three years ago and since his freshman season was the leader of the team in minutes per game.

This past season, his junior campaign, Holmes II averaged a blistering 20.4 points per game, on top of 8.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 54.4% from the field. Additionally, he shot a very impressive 38.6% from three, and as a guy that stands around 6-foot-11, he has a high release point that makes contesting perimeter shots difficult for wing players.

The advanced stats paint an even more compelling picture. Efficiency wise, Holmes II is beyond elite – he has a points per possession number of 1.098, which has him in the 94th percentile in college basketball, according to Synergy Sports.

He also averages 1.15 points per shot, including 1.18 points per shot off of the catch and shoot. Though the level of competition may not have been as elite as other conferences, the statistical profile stands out regardless.

Though he was the star for Dayton in NCAA basketball, Holmes II doesn't project as a star at the next level as far as usage rate, minutes, and reps is concerned. The way Holmes II will get his points and attempts will be at the rim, where he's most gifted in scoring.

While his perimeter shooting numbers are still really good, he's at heart a true play finisher on the offensive end, a lob threat that can run the floor in transition and grab boards on both ends.

Holmes II is projected by most to go in the 25-to-30 range in the First Round of the 2024 NBA Draft, but there is an argument to be made for Holmes II being selected higher than his projected landing spot.

The fact that he has three years of college basketball under his belt, over which he showed vast improvement in a myriad of areas, and is still just 21 years old, and will be on draft night.

A guy like Jaime Jaquez Jr. could be a good model for drafting DaRon Holmes II. Obviously this comparison has nothing to do with play style, but the Miami Heat rookie is proof that sometimes, betting on experience works – Holmes II has experience, but without the baggage of age.

Jaquez Jr. for the Miami Heat was one of the best rookies in the NBA last year, and there is a world in which Holmes II is one of those breakout players in the 2024 class because of his versatility on both sides of the ball. If Holmes is given a good pick-and-roll ball handler as a partner, he could have Dereck Lively II-like numbers, as well as be able to step out and hit the occasional three-ball.

Holmes II is a guy that is being overlooked that could have an immediate impact. There is value in drafting Holmes II as high as mid-to-late lottery according to some scouts. Either way, some one will fall in love with the versatility.

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