Rise in NBA Rookie Success Has Made Us Become Less Patient

Expecting young players to dominate the league has become the norm, meaning several players aren't being evaluated properly.

May 5, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley (4) goes for a rebound / Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Due to the vast amount of quality coming out of the draft on an annual basis, expectations towards rookies have skyrocketed.

And why not?

Victor Wembanyama is making a real case for NBA Defensive Player of the Year after his rookie season.

Paolo Banchero just went ballistic in his first playoff series during his second season.

Anthony Edwards, all 22 years of him, just took the Denver Nuggets behind the woodshed in Game 1 of the West semis.

At this point, we've become incredibly accustomed to players arriving in the NBA, ready to get it on. It's partly why our patience is running thin with guys who haven't made a major leap, despite being extremely young, and with plenty of time left to make significant alterations to their game.

Let's take the just-concluded series against the Magic and Cavaliers.

Cavs forward Evan Mobley, who is in his third year, is receiving criticism from fans for not having lived up to his vast potential yet. The word on Mobley, coming out of the draft, was how he could be a do-it-all big man. The vision was a player with elite defensive capabilities, who could space the floor, handle the ball, and even initiate the offense.

Mobley, 22, actually does most of that. He's not much a floor spacer yet, which is one of the biggest knocks on his game. He's also not an elite playmaker, even if he does make decent reads, and is a better ball-handler than he gets credited. The rest of it he does, and fairly well. He's a reliable big man option who will score in the mid-teens, give you around 10 rebounds, and offer you a high level of defensive switchability.

Now let's turn to Franz Wagner, also in his third season.

Wagner shot miserably from the outside this season, hitting just 28% of his long-range shots. This has raised questions about his long-term fit as Orlando's second-best player, a role he's inhabited for two seasons, despite being thrown into that box without much consideration. Wagner is a strong playmaker, skilled with the ball in his hands, possesses a high feel for the game, and his 6-foot-10 frame somehow does things only guards will do. Yet, it was always reasonable to wonder if Wagner was going to be that high on the totem pole moving forward. If anything, he seems tailored to go down one notch, and play off a stronger Top 2.

At no point - and I do mean, at no point whatsoever - should we look at what Mobley and Wagner offers and be disappointed. Both have obviously lived up to their draft slot, even if expectations from fans exceeded that.

Remember, players can't control expectations. If I were to say Stephon Castle will be the new Michael Jordan, and I got a million people to agree with me, that's my words placing something unrealistic on him, and not his.

Which leads to this.

The element of patience has become forgotten. ESPN's Doris Burke, in a conversation with JJ Redick during Game 7, made a similar point.

Just because Mobley isn't yet some optimized version of himself yet, at age 22, and Wagner's development isn't linear, doesn't mean these guys don't still have time to become more.

And even if they don't, we need to remind ourselves that these guys aren't scrubs. These are borderline All-Star caliber players, who both have 10+ years left in the league.

Perhaps it's time to cool it on expecting everyone to ball out at the earliest possible stage.

(And yes, that also means perhaps cooling the MJ comps on Edwards. For his sake.)

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Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

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