Does James Harden Trade Put New York Knicks Closer to Joel Embiid?
The New York Knicks' apparent fascination with Philadelphia basketball alumni is set to continue, even with one of the latest superstar having gone west.
James Harden, formerly of the Philadelphia 76ers, is the latest elite domino to fall among the NBA roster circles and the Knicks are once again relegated to the ripple. Harden moves on to the Los Angeles Clippers to form one of the Association's newest so-called superteams alongside Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. The first results of a costly trade for the Clippers could come on Monday when they visit Madison Square Garden to face the Knicks.
Much like the Damian Lillard trade before it, missing out on Harden is another blessing in disguise for the Knicks: the already-crowded backcourt situation aside, Harden is perhaps the NBA's most deadly double-edged sword where his arrival and departure are equally celebrated among his employers. The last thing the Knicks, already off to a tepid start to the 2023-24 season, need is to become the latest guest star in the Harden soap opera.
Focus, however, now turns to Joel Embiid, left behind in Philadelphia to salvage whatever's left of "The Process." By now, anyone even remotely aware of the Knicks' affairs knows that they covet the reigning NBA MVP's services and are prepared to pounce if and when 76ers management turns its second key in launching the rebuild strike.
Knicks observers have engaged in the "Now What?" song and dance before but the Harden gambit is particularly intriguing considering its impact on the Embiid deal. In terms of ripple effects, the shore is getting closer.
The Embiid-Harden combo failed to produce a title in Philadelphia
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Patience is a Virtue
Between now and February's trade deadline, both Embiid and the 76ers are engaged in a dual job interview and are sizing up each other's future: whereas Embiid must prove to both Philadelphia and its NBA brethren that he's capable of being the undisputed top option of a championship-worthy group, the 76ers must present Wells Fargo Center as a viable long-term home capable of contending now and later.
From the get-go, Philadelphia made it clear that, even with Harden's dissatisfaction, it had no intention of leaving the upper levels of the Eastern Conference high-rise. The penthouse is undoubtedly occupied by Boston and Milwaukee (with defending finalist Miami, off to a suspicious start of its own, holding a key) while the Sixers are fighting with at least the Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers for entry into the elevator. A team, for example, doesn't let one championship coach (Doc Rivers) and immediately hires another (Nick Nurse) if it plans on throwing away this season, which losing both Harden and Embiid would undoubtedly herald.
That's all to say that, barring a complete basketball breakdown in Philadelphia, don't expect early Valentine's Day sweetness in the form of Embiid.
The 76ers undoubtedly stand as Embiid's team for the time being. Embiid has about three months to whip Philadelphia into playing shape to lure veterans from abroad. In a very, very, very, very small sample size, it has worked: with help from a Tyrese Maxey breakout, Embiid has guided the 76ers to a 2-1 mark and the second seed on the extraordinarily premature Eastern Conference playoff bracket.
Philadelphia management would be silly to be stagnant at the trade deadline, especially if they plan to have Embiid stick around. But don't expect the MVP to be part of the holiday shipments.
NBA deputy commissioner Mark Tatum brandishes the Knicks' logo during an NBA draft lottery
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Picks Won't Stick
Questions will raised if the Knicks (2-3) continue to struggle but it's hard to argue against management's patient, prudent approach to the transaction ledger. Last season produced rare metropolitan peace both on and off the court: Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle handled the present while president Leon Rose stashed numerous draft picks.
Consider the muted yet lucrative approach to the 2022 draft: the Knicks began with the simple yet valuable asset of the 11th overall pick. In a gambit that would've made a pre-miracle legume Dwight Schrute proud, the Knicks wound up with a cabinet of draft picks and millions of savings after shedding a late lottery pick's salary scale (up to $4.9 million in the 2022-23 cap) and nearly $9 million dedicated to the failed Kemba Walker experiment. With that, they were able to build a budget for both Brunson and Donovan Mitchell. Even though they prevailed on only the former, last year's 47-win effort provided a sterling stepping stone.
Rose's pantry already had some solid foundations, such as the potential first-round pick from Dallas that drove Mark Cuban and Co. into tanking when they couldn't find a Brunson replacement. In any negotiation, if and when they were to occur, the Knicks had, and still have a healthy arsenal of unnamed rookies to offer.
But the 76ers have apparently taken the hint, as they netted at least three first-round picks from the Harden trade, including one of the most potentially valuable commodities on the future draft market: the Clippers' completely unprotected first choice in 2028. By then, Harden, George, and Leonard will all be in their late 30s ... if they're even still there ... and, with rare exception (i.e. Terance Mann with the 48th pick in 2019), have not prepared well enough to build anything that far into the future.
In other words, picks simply won't cut when dealing with the Sixers from now on.
The Knicks were probably well aware that Philadelphia wasn't going to be satisfied with a bunch of players to be named later, but perhaps figured that could appease their appetites with salary matches (Evan Fournier), projects with untapped potential (Miles McBride, Jericho Sims), or perhaps even a backcourt building block in Immanuel Quickley, but that latter option was probably eliminated with a lack of a post-rookie contract deal. An option like this may mean that the Knicks have to redraw some of their blueprints, as an Embiid trade could now include a potential cornerstone like RJ Barrett, Quentin Grimes, and/or Mitchell Robinson.
New York still holds an interesting stockpile, provided they actually decide to use it the way it's intended, of course. After the Harden trade, however, it simply won't do as much to impress the 76ers anymore.
