Lakers: LeBron James Predicts Player Who Could Supplant Him As NBA’s Top Scorer
During a recent interview with ESPN's Dave McMenamin that has already drawn some critical ire, long-lasting Los Angeles Lakers All-Star forward LeBron James made a fascinating prediction.
As we all know, James is set to pass another Lakers legend, five-time champion (and six-time MVP) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, for the NBA/ABA's all-time regular season scoring record. James already has the actual record for most points scored in the league, when one combines regular season and postseason points. That mark should be a bigger deal than it is, given that, you know, at the end of the day the postseason matters a bit more than the regular season, but no matter.
When McMenamin asked the four-time NBA MVP which current player he thought could pass him as the all-time regular season scorer, James made an interesting pick, with which this writer at least does not agree.
"KD's the first name that comes to mind for sure," James postulated. "His [nickname] is not 'Easy Money' and 'Slim Reaper' for no reason."
James is currently just 422 points shy of surpassing Abdul-Jabbar's all-time regular season scoring record of 38,387 points. Given that the 38-year-old The Chosen One is averaging 29.1 points a night (in year 20!), that means he is probably 14-16 games away from surpassing Cap's current high water mark.
Kevin Durant is an interesting selection. Prior to his current MCL injury, the 6'10" (allegedly, although he sure looks closer to 7') Brooklyn Nets power forward had been having an MVP-caliber season for what had been the hottest team in the Eastern Conference. The Nets have won 18 of their last 20 games.
At age 34, Durant's durability has taken a massive hit ever since he tore his Achilles tendon during the 2019 NBA Finals. KD's 26,684 career points currently ranks him 14th. He has missed an average of 32 games a season since returning from the Achilles tear (for which he missed all of 2019-20). LeBron James intends to play at least through the 2024-25 season. He's been averaging 1,506 points per season since signing on with LA in 2018. So let's assume he keeps up that tally (i.e. betting on him to miss 20-25 games a season through 2025). Should he do that, he'd extend his record tally to an astronomical 41,583 career regular season points. There may be some age-related decline which could impact his scoring average and health a bit, so it's certainly no guarantee he reaches that number by 2024-25.
Then again, it has also been floated by another Lakers starter that LeBron James actually intends to play until he's 45 years old, which would presumably extend his regular season scoring record far beyond that hypothetical 41,583-point threshold, even with some drop-off.
Let's assume the injury-prone Durant (who is set to miss at least the next month with the MCL sprain and is also no spring chicken himself), plays until he's 40. Even if that proves to be the case, he'd need to score 14,900 points to best LBJ. He would need to nab 2,128.6 points per year from this year through the 2028-29 season. That's an average of (roughly) 26 points per game, if he played all 82 games. Though given that he is a prolific shooter and doesn't necessarily count on athleticism to get his buckets, Durant should age gracefully, averaging that kind of output will be a tough task regardless, made even tougher but him accruing inevitable injuries every season.
He has missed an average of 47 games since he joined Brooklyn as a free agent in 2019. Granted, the average is dragged down by that Achilles tear, but even still, he's missed an average of 32 games in his last two seasons. Let's say he can stay even a bit healthier, and is sidelined for just 20 games a year going forward (which feels incredibly optimistic). Averaging 26 points per game (again, that's pretty optimistic given his age), it would take him 9.2 seasons (including this one) to beat LeBron's sum -- i.e. he would need to average 26 points a game through his age-43 season. That's a tall task.
Check out the full McMenamin-James interview here:
