Analyzing The Three Mavs NBA Playoff Seeding Scenarios
The Dallas Mavericks have already clinched a spot in the playoffs this season, despite only having a 2-3 bubble record in the NBA restart.
“To be in and be assured of the seventh position is good,” Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle said recently. “But we came here to move up.”
The Mavs can finish no lower than the seventh seed in the Western Conference standings, and though that seems likely to be Dallas' final place in the standings by season's end, there is still a glimmer of hope that the team could move up a spot or two to avoid facing the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round.
Scenario No. 1: 2-Seed Clippers vs. 7-Seed Mavs
Again, this one is the most-likely scenario, given that the Mavs have to win their final three games just to have a chance at moving up (Dallas is resting most of its starters today against the Utah Jazz, so any slim chance of moving up could be squashed for good within hours).
The Denver Nuggets are only one game behind the Clippers in the standings, thanks to a shocking upset by the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday night. If the Nuggets can take down the struggling Los Angeles Lakers tonight, they'll just be a half-game behind the Clippers for the 2-seed.
With the Nuggets and Clippers set to face off in a Wednesday night head-to-head, we'd say things are starting to get very interesting.
A Mavs-Clippers first round matchup could also, in theory, still happen in a 3-seed and 6-seed scenario, but we won't get into all of that right now.
SEE: Inside The Clippers Plan To Stop Luka
The Clippers are the worst potential playoff matchup for the Mavs, but if Luka Doncic and the rest of the team can play the same way they did in a thrilling overtime win over the Milwaukee Bucks the other night, we'll give them a fighting chance against anybody.
Scenario No. 2: 2-Seed Nuggets vs. 7-Seed Mavs
Let's say the Nuggets end up beating the Lakers tonight and then the Clippers on Wednesday night. Denver would then hold a half-game lead over the Clippers with one game remaining. If this happens, either a Nuggets win against the Toronto Raptors or a Clippers loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the teams' season finales would ensure that Denver ends up with the 2-seed. This scenario also assumes that the Mavs will likely stay put and keep the 7-seed.
The Nuggets would be a relatively favorable first-round opponent for the Mavs. The Mavs won the regular season series with the Nuggets, 2-1, and the only loss came by one point due to a last-second pass by Dorian Finney-Smith that skipped into the backcourt as time expired.
Overall, the Mavs matchup well with the Nuggets, and Denver doesn't have anyone who can stop Doncic or Kristaps Porzingis. No disrespect to Nikola Jokic, but he mostly makes his money on the offensive end of the court. If the Mavs' role players are hitting open shots, this could be a potential upset in the making. This is the scenario Mavs fans should be rooting for the most.
Just like with the Clippers, the Mavs could technically end up playing the Nuggets in a 3-seed and 6-seed scenario, although unlikely.
Scenario No. 3: 4-Seed Rockets vs. 5-Seed Mavs
OK, A LOT has to go right for this one to happen, but it's an interesting possibility nonetheless. The Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder and Utah Jazz are all still alive for the 4-seed in the West, but the Rockets currently occupy that spot and have a one-game lead with three games to play. Being that the Jazz have been inconsistent and only play two more games, and considering that the Thunder have a tough schedule remaining, we believe it's likely that the Rockets keep their spot at No. 4 in the West heading into the playoffs.
For the Mavs to force an I-45 rivalry playoff series in the first round, they have to take care of their own business first by beating the Jazz, the Portland Trail Blazers and the Phoenix Suns. That in itself is no easy task, but if they Mavs are able to pull it off, they'd need the Jazz to lose its remaining two games (the first one tonight against Dallas and the second one on Thursday against the San Antonio Spurs). Dallas would also need the Thunder to lose its remaining three games as well (OKC still plays the Suns, the Miami Heat and the Raptors - not an easy stretch by any means).
Whew ... So yes, that is a lot that has to happen, but if all the stars align just right, a Mavs-Rockets first round series could happen. And if it does happen? Well... let the fireworks begin. If the Mavs' first game in the bubble was any indication, a playoff series would have no shortage of excitement. After modeling parts of his game after James Harden, it would be pretty cool to see Doncic go up against him in a 'winner-take-all' situation.
Most likely, though: Dallas will have a No. 7 seed ... and an underdog role once the NBA Playoffs commence.
