Mavs 'Significant Competitive Advantage' ProFitX Values Christian Wood's Salary at $26.2M
With the help of Jalen Brunson, the Dallas Mavericks pulled off an impressive run to the Western Conference Finals last season. There was a sense that the Mavs had found Luka Doncic's "co-pilot" for the long term, but instead, Brunson left to join the New York Knicks in free agency.
The Mavs had to replace Brunson's scoring production in the offseason, and their efforts began using a trade with the Houston Rockets to acquire Christian Wood. The versatile big man has thrived since the deal, whether in a sixth-man role or when starting alongside Doncic.
In 35 games, Wood has averaged 17.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in just 27.8 minutes per game. He's doing so while shooting 54.4 percent from the floor and 40.3 percent from 3-point range. It has proven to be an effective trade for the Mavs to add an All-Star caliber player for such a low cost.
"For us to trade for him, to have him start coming off the bench, I thought he killed that role for us as the sixth man," Mavs coach Jason Kidd said of Wood's impact in different roles this season. "Now being able to start, he's also checked that box and is killing that. ... He's helped us on both ends of the floor."
After a possible season-ending injury to Maxi Kleber, in addition to the ineffectiveness of JaVale McGee, the Mavs have started Wood over the last nine games. He's averaged 19.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks during this span, with his continued defensive growth being on display.
Dallas has recorded a 7-1 record in eight games that Wood has started alongside Doncic, including a seven-game winning streak — the longest since the team's 2010-11 title season. The success has occurred despite much of the team's top defenders being sidelined due to injuries.
"I think I had a slow start defensively. I just had to learn the defensive concepts, earn my team's trust defensively — earn my coaches' trust defensively. I'm doing that as of late," Wood said of his defensive growth.
Wood's commitment to defense has been fueling a surge in his production as a shot blocker and general defensive anchor. Not only is he averaging 2.9 blocks over this eight game stretch he's started, but opponents are shooting just 48.8 precent against him on attempts within six-feet of the rim, which ranks third among 28 players with 50+ FGA in this span.
In the 604 minutes that Doncic and Wood have shared the floor, the Mavs produced a 120.0 offensive rating, a 112.8 defensive rating, and a 7.1 net rating. The two standouts have formed a lethal pick-and-roll combination that can counter any defensive coverage, whether the opposition is deploying a drop, switching, or blitzing. With Wood continuing to grow as a rim protector, the floor of the group is only improving. It doesn't hurt that both players have been developing strong chemistry on and off the court.
"Sometimes it's hard to be with me on the court probably. "I just want to win. But (Wood) appreciates that, he never gets mad," Doncic said of his relationship with Wood. "He listens to me, I listen to him. It's working great."
With Wood on the floor, Doncic has a threat that better keeps the defense honest, which has been integral in his recent historic run. He's averaging 38.9 points, 10.4 rebounds and 9.5 assists during the eight games he's played alongside Wood since his emergence into the Mavs' starting lineup. None of Doncic's teammates have made more field goals (76) than Wood this season.
With the extreme measures the opposition tends to go to neutralize Doncic, it takes a genuinely versatile scoring threat to keep the defense honest. Wood can get a bucket in the post after a switch, space out from the perimeter, or finish in the paint at a high level on the roll or a cut. It's very rare to find a complement that can transcend any coverage deployed by the defense.
"Me and him are always talking with each other on the floor about how we can get better," Wood said of countering defensive coverages with Doncic. "The way teams defend us, they switch the coverages up every game. One game they might switch, another game they might be in a drop, another game they might be in a show. It's just about me and him having that communication in the pick-and-roll and the pick-and-pop."
As Wood solidifies himself as an indispensable complement to Doncic, there has been much speculation regarding a possible contract extension. He has been eligible to sign a two-year deal worth $30,818,330. It wasn't until Dec. 24 that Wood was eligible to discuss a longer contract extension or one that involves up to a 20 percent increase from the $14,317,459 salary he's earning in the final year of his current contract. Currently, Dallas has the option of offering Wood a contract extension that spans as long as four years and is worth up to $76,970,660.
Based on Wood's current production, what would a fair value of his services be? Some tools can help make such determinations. The Mavs have a partnership with ProFitX, a software company that provides access to real-time financial and performance insights powered by Artificial Intelligence. No other team in the league is listed as a partner.
"The Dallas Mavericks are excited to be partnering with ProFitX," Cuban said in an August 2021 statement when announcing the partnership. “Their advanced technologies will provide us with the tools that allow us to gain a significant competitive advantage."
ProFitX currently values Wood's production at $26,199,048, which translates to a team ROI of 82.99 percent based on his current salary. A four-year deal using such a starting annual salary would be worth roughly $117,371,735 in total salary with eight percent annual raises.
In a ProFitX case study about Brunson's free agency from last summer, his fair market value projection was $27,331,649. After signing a four-year, $104,000,000 contract with a descending annual salary, he is earning $27,733,332 this season.
To further illustrate the application of the data, Maxi Kleber was the focus of another ProFitX case study in which he had a projected value of $12,664,548. He will earn $11,000,000 annually when his three-year, $33,000,000 extension begins. Dallas received a 13.1 percent discount on the deal.
A projection model from former NBA executive and current contributor for The Athletic, John Hollinger, used a formula that values Wood at $23,605,861 for the 2022-23 season. Whether using the value from ProFitX or from Hollinger's "BORD$" model, Wood's impact is valued well above a possible starting salary of $17,180,949 by signing a contract extension.
Ahead of a rising salary cap due to the NBA's next broadcasting deal, rising salaries are to be expected around the league. It's not easy to find a center with the shooting ability and shot-creation talent that Wood brings to the table. Another factor to consider, it would be devastating for the Mavs to lose their clear-cut second-best player for nothing in consecutive years, especially a talent that is being consistently promoted for All-Star voting by the team. His production on a per 36 minutes basis of 23.0 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks on the season makes a strong case for it.
Wood is viewed as a dynamic talent around the league, but also by the Mavs organization. Cuban told Mavs.com at Las Vegas Summer League that Wood "is going to surprise a lot of people" after he gets acclimated to playing with Doncic, which is playing out in real time.
“I think (Wood is) going to surprise a lot of people,” Cuban told Mavs.com in July. “I think he’s a lot better than advertised.
“When he gets used to playing with Luka and gets used to his role, he can be a shot blocker, a rebounder, someone who can create offense and someone who can go for a lob. He’s just so, so versatile that we’re real excited to have him.”
Without a contract extension in place, there is a strong chance that Wood continues to improve his outlook ahead of his free agency. Brunson managed to do so throughout his 2021-22 campaign before having a breakout postseason run prior to free agency. Again, Wood's commitment to improving as a defender has helped his value while helping the Mavs to win games.
The Mavs hold Wood's Bird rights, meaning they can exceed the salary cap to re-sign him in the offseason. If Wood was to depart in free agency, the team's front office would still be operating over the salary cap, causing them to lose that spending power. They'd have used a first-round pick that had effectively been used on a one-year rental.
Want the latest in breaking news and insider information on the Dallas Mavericks? Click Here.
