If Starting Lineup Change Doesn’t Fix Mavs’ Biggest Issues, What’s Next?
After the Dallas Mavericks’ 125-112 loss to the Boston Celtics on Wednesday, coach Jason Kidd hinted at a potential change to his starting lineup as early as this weekend’s back-to-back against the Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks.
"We've talked about changing the starting lineup," Kidd said after also pointing out how well the duo of Luka Doncic and Christian Wood played together in Boston. "That's one of the questions I ask every day to the staff. ... We'll talk about it tomorrow. We'll talk about it Friday, and we'll see what happens Saturday."
Although making a starting lineup change would help, it’s not a fix-all for this Mavs roster. Whether Wood starts in place of Dwight Powell or Josh Green starts in place of Reggie Bullock, Dallas still needs all of its pieces to be working well at the same time to maximize its potential.
“We did a lot of good things in that second half, got a lot of good looks,” said Kidd. “We’ve said this over and over. We’ve gotten good looks. The shooters aren’t shooting at a high clip right now.”
Kidd might not want to be too harsh on his veteran shooters, but he’s sugar-coating the situation in a big way to simply say they aren’t shooting “at a high clip.” They’ve been downright atrocious, and their inability to get on track is holding the Mavs back.
Reggie Bullock, who has started every game for Dallas so far, is shooting 31.3 percent from the field, including 29.5 percent from 3-point range on 4.6 attempts per game. Through 11 games in November, Bullock is shooting 26.7 percent overall and 22.4 percent from deep. That’s an unacceptable lack of production from a player who is playing nearly 30 minutes per game.
Bullock has earned the benefit of the doubt from Kidd so far due to his key role in last season‘s Western Conference Finals run, and that’s understandable to an extent. But the Mavs can’t afford to wait for Bullock to hit his magic switch around New Year’s this season with a limited roster that lives and dies by 3s. Bullock came off the bench for Kidd early in the season last year, and he should be doing so again now.
Tim Hardaway Jr., who is already coming off the bench, hasn't done much better, as he's shooting career-lows 31.2 percent from the field and 30 percent from deep on 6.9 attempts per game in 24.3 minutes. He earned a four-year, $75 million contract 17 months ago by shooting nearly 40 percent from deep in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, but he hasn't sniffed that level of efficiency since. Even before Hardaway's foot injury that ended his season last year, he was still shooting just 33.6 percent from deep.
Factor in Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber not playing up to their abilities as well, and it's easy to see why the Mavs are just 9-8 through 17 games despite Doncic leading the league with 34 points per game on over 50-percent shooting. And the scary part for Dallas is that its main supporting cast members to Doncic – not named Wood or Green – aren't getting any younger either. All of Finney-Smith, Hardaway, Powell, Kleber and Bullock are 29 years old or older. Although it would be nice for all of them to turn things around, there's no guarantee they'll do so.
So ... if Kidd does change the starting lineup on Saturday – our ideal starting five would consist of Doncic, Dinwiddie, Green, Finney-Smith and Wood – and if it doesn't change much for the Mavs on the court or in the standings, where do they go from there?
Do they try to swing a break-even trade just for the sake of shaking things up similar to last year’s Kristaps Porzingis trade to the Washington Wizards? Because without their role players raising their level of play in the next few months, it's doubtful the Mavs will be able to get in on any high-profile trade scenarios.
Do they accelerate their initial development plans for 20-year-old rookie Jaden Hardy, who is leading the G League by averaging 27.9 points per game for the Texas Legends? Not only is Hardy pouring in the points, but he's doing so with incredible efficiency, shooting 56.1 percent from the field, 47.5 percent from deep on 8.7 attempts per game, and 95.7 percent on free throws.
Some of the issues the Mavs are facing now could've been alleviated in the offseason had they made a serious offer to Doncic's buddy Goran Dragic or former-Maverick Dennis Smith Jr. to assume the team's third ball-handler role. Alas, it didn't happen, and now the options are: 1) find an in-house fix, or 2) make an outside move of some kind to find a fix.
To fully exhaust option No. 1, that starts with Kidd trying new things with his lineups, which we sense is coming soon. Next, it will be the Mavs getting out of their comfort zone and seeing what Hardy can do even if they believe he's not ready to take that next step just yet. If it doesn't work, it doesn't work, and the Mavs can send Hardy back to the G League to continue his development there. But for a team that's desperate to find a spark and some kind of consistency, we don't think it could hurt much to give the young talent a shot.
"When I'm with the Legends, I'm getting reps and getting my confidence up to be ready when my number is called," Hardy told DallasBasketball.com's Grant Afseth in an exclusive 1-on-1 interview. Hardy has really focused on being consistent during his time with the Legends in hopes of getting that call-up sooner than later.
The current Dallas front office dropped the ball by not signing Jalen Brunson to an extension before it was too late last year, and it didn't help matters much over the summer by assuming Brunson's absence could be so easily replaced by in-house guys like Frank Ntilikina.
Although mistakes have been made, the reality of the situation is that GM Nico Harrison is still paying for the mess former GM Donnie Nelson left behind in some ways. Overall, Harrison has done a decent job with the hand he was dealt, but we'll find out just how much of a difference he'll be able to make or not next summer when the Mavs have full draft-pick flexibility for potential trades.
There is no "easy" fix for the Mavs' current roster limitations, but it's up to Harrison, Kidd and owner Mark Cuban to figure out what the solution is. After all, that's what the get paid the big bucks to do.
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