Breaking Down Pelicans From Beyond The Arc

The New Orleans Pelicans and the three-point shot have had a weird relationship this season.

Author:
Chris Dodson
Updated:
Mar 8, 2023 5:31 PM EST

In this story:

NEW ORLEANS - Coach Willie Green wants the New Orleans Pelicans to take more three-pointers. The stated goal was 35 attempts per game after a Feb. 7 home win over the Atlanta Hawks. Running the numbers in hopes of finding a correlation between hitting that mark and winning games brings back mixed results on that strategy, however.

On pure volume, the Golden State Warriors (1092) are lapping the Pelicans (692) in made attempts. Only the Chicago Bulls have taken fewer three-pointers this season than New Orleans. Seven of the eight lowest teams are battling for a play-in spot or are already thinking about the NBA Draft. The other team has two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic.

The old coaching adage of "miss every shot you don't take" applies but New Orleans is successful just 35% of the time. Brandon Ingram (39.3%) is having a career year but only fires away four times per game. CJ McCollum (37.3%) is above average compared to the league at large but it is the worst percentage of his career. Jonas Valanciunas has not shot this poorly in five years.

Jan 7, 2023; Dallas, Texas, USA; New Orleans Pelicans center Jonas Valanciunas (17) shoots over Dallas Mavericks forward Christian Wood (35) and guard Luka Doncic (77) during the first quarter at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Trey Murphy III (38%) and Kira Lewis Jr. (46%) are the only real threats opponents have been worrying about the last few weeks. The Point-Five (0.5 seconds) offense is barely puttering along as well. Getting movement, action, energy, and open looks have been a real challenge lately.

Herb Jones (30%) has regressed to the point of needing a position change. Opposing coaches are willing to live with Jose Alvarado (33%), Dyson Daniels (32%), and Naji Marshall (31%) getting open looks. The focus on keeping Ingram and McCollum one-dimensional has been working.

Getting up 35 three-pointers per contest would be a top-10 volume. Lowering it down to 34 is more middle of the pack. Currently, the Pelicans are second to last at just 30.1 per game.

Making 12 per game is exactly the 35.2% mark the Pelicans are sporting going into a visit from the Dallas Mavericks. New Orleans needs to be better, so three-pointers made stats will look at 13 or more made shots. So what do the stats say and are there any changes that might need to be made?

Mar 6, 2023; Sacramento, California, USA; New Orleans Pelicans shooting guard CJ McCollum (3) looks to pass the ball between Sacramento Kings point guard Matthew Dellavedova (8) and shooting guard Terence Davis (3) during the second quarter at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

2022-23 Season Starts As Planned

The team came into training camp relatively healthy. The strategy was set and the Pelicans were even in first place a few months ago. The starting five were clicking and the reserves all look fairly comfortable in their respective roles. Then the injuries started to stack up but it helps to start with a look at the full picture.

Attempted 34+: 16 games (8-8)
0-8 3PM: 20 (6-14)
9-12 3PM: 26 (14-12)
13+ 3PM: 19 (11-8)
Record: 31-34 (as of March 8)

In a bit of an oddity, the Pelicans are 4-1 in games where they make exactly 9 three-pointers but are inversely 1-5 when they hit exactly 10 long-range looks. In any case, New Orleans needs to make more than just 2 per quarter to have a shot at a winning record.

Making more than 3 per quarter brought back about the same winning percentage results. There is not much evidence the team needs to get carried away with quantity over quality. The jury is still out on Green's 35 or more strategy when looking at the big picture. Rebounds, winning the turnover battle, and assist rates might have more value as a team priority.

First 18, Best 18

Remember childhood? Those first 18 or so years before life starts looking at you sideways, like bills are due? That is the New Orleans Pelicans season at a glance. The first 18 were the best 18, playing a tough schedule but coming out of the first quarter of the season in great shape.

Attempted 34+: 6 (3-3)
0-8 3PM: 6 (3-3)
9-12 3PM: 4 (3-1)
13+ 3PM: 8 (5-3)
Record: 11-7

New Orleans only played three games against teams not still in the playoff chase in this opening stretch. Only the home loss to Portland is regrettable. The Pelicans earned 5 of their 11 road wins in the first 5 weeks of the season as well. Then the rotations started to get wrecked by mounting injuries.

Still, the difference in attempting 34 three-pointers instead of just 30-32 is negligible. Controlling the paint and getting second-chance opportunities gave the team comfortable leads, not a barrage of bombs from beyond the arc.

Williamson was a large part of why that tactic worked but Valanciunas has been used far differently this season. A return to what got the team in the play-in spot last season might be in order. Jones and Valanciunas acting as offense hubs from the high-block elbow spots has unlocked offensive options and given everyone more space to operate.

Mar 6, 2023; Sacramento, California, USA; New Orleans Pelicans small forward Brandon Ingram (14) walks to the bench as a time out is called against the Sacramento Kings during the third quarter at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Ingram's 29-Game Absence:

Every team has to deal with the occasional missed game by an All-Star throughout the season. Ingram (toe) was out from Nov. 25 through Jan. 25 and those 29 missed games marked the longest in-season absence of his career.

Just looking at the stats in the stretch between Black Friday, when Ingram logged just 17 minutes, and his return, it's easy to see how the beyond-the-arc offense still found ways to put up points around Williamson. Of note, the team went 12/38 the night Ingram returned, though Zion was already on the shelf for almost a month at that point.

Attempted 34+: 7 (5-2)
0-8 3PM: 7 (3-4)
9-12 3PM: 14 (7-7)
13+ 3PM: 8 (5-3)
Record: 15-14

Williamson won an NBA All-Star nod by leading New Orleans to a 15-14 record while Ingram was out. The two-time NBA All-Star needed room to rumble so the Pelicans had to keep getting shots up even if they were not falling. Once Williamson succumbed to a hamstring injury, teams collapsed around McCollum and Murphy.

The percentage of contested shots went up. Assists and shooting success rates cratered. Playing through a thumb injury has not helped McCollum either. The team, in effect, lost its identity for a bit, and Green has addressed this issue in several ways when speaking to the media.

But it's the messages the media does not here that matters most. A seven-game followed by a five-game win streak a week later buoyed the Pelicans for the rough waters ahead. Unfortunately, that second streak ended on a day after New Year's and the stats still do not give a clear answer on the optimal three-point volume.

New Orleans Pelicans All-Star Forward Zion Williamson — Mar 1, 2023; Portland, Oregon, USA; New Orleans Pelicans power forward Zion Williamson (1, right) watches from the bench during the second half against the Portland Trail Blazers at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Since New Year's Day:

Zion Williamson pulled up with a hamstring injury midway through a January 2 road game against the Philadelphia 76ers and has now missed 29 games, the same stretch as Ingram. The Pelicans had New Year's Day off but Williamson has been on the shelf ever since.

There were hopes of a return around the NBA All-Star break but there was a setback, per the team. The offense has barely been getting by since the calendar flipped to 2023.

Attempted 35+: 5 (1-4)
0-8 3PM: 9 (0-9)
9-12 3PM: 19 (6-13)
13+ 3PM: 5 (2-3)
Record: 8-25

New Orleans really got away from Willie Green's 35+ three-point directives in 2023. Playing without Williamson and Ingram, and even a few games without McCollum, really devastated the team's rotations. It is hard to use any tape from January without injury-related qualifiers.

The Pelicans lost some close games, but also put up some questionable stats in blowouts. Only one of the 5 games with 13 or made three-pointers was decided by five or fewer points.

Considering all the sample sizes, it is hard not to be skeptical about a 35+ tactic. Going from the 29th most attempts to a top 10 rate would be a drastic change to the offense, which evidently only needs to go 10/30 to have a winning record.