Handicapping The Western Conference Playoff Race

Las Vegas has released new championship odds for each team coming out of the NBA All-Star break.

Author:
Chris Dodson
Feb 20, 2023 7:08 PM EST

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New Orleans, La.- The trade deadline has passed; the buyout market is exhausted. The NBA All-Star break is over. With almost every team coming back healthy and refreshed, Las Vegas has released new championship odds for each team. The New Orleans Pelicans have yet to say when Zion Williamson will officially return but the Brandon Ingram-led squad did get some respect from bookmakers. (All odds courtesy of SI's Sportsbook.)

New Orleans (+5000) is given the 11th-best odds overall, tied with the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat. Williamson's return could push the Pelicans into the top ten. Whether that's a smart bet once the team's payoff is decreased is debatable. Handicapping each team sheds light on the easiest playoff path for the Pelicans.

Feb 2, 2023; Dallas, Texas, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard Jose Alvarado (15) celebrates as forward Brandon Ingram (14) comes off the court during the second half of the game against the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

It is far easier now to handicap the playoff races with just over a month remaining in the regular season. Two Eastern Conference juggernauts are given the best odds to win the NBA Finals. The Boston Celtics (+275) and Milwaukee Bucks (+400) are heavily favored, with the Philadelphia 76ers (+1200) trailing far behind. The Cleveland Cavaliers (+2200) and Miami Heat (+4000) are the only other Eastern Conference teams with odds better than +10,000.

The West is a bit wilder. The top team is basically settled but the mess from 2-12 is primed to produce some chaos. A few first-round upsets could shake up the league's hierarchy barring Steph Curry's Golden State Warriors (+1700) orchestrating a series win as a lower seed.

Possible First-Round Foes

The Pelicans are two games behind the currently fourth-placed LA Clippers (+1000) and two behind the third-placed Sacramento Kings (+15000), who have far longer odds of winning compared to the Pelicans according to Las Vegas. The Phoenix Suns (+450) and Dallas Mavericks (+1400) are also just a game or two ahead of New Orleans in the battle for home-court advantage in the first round.

Should Willie Green's squad fall into the play-in, a series against the Denver Nuggets (+700) or Memphis Grizzlies (+1400) awaits. Jonas Valanciunas is a respected playoff-tested veteran but the Pelicans have no defensive answer for two-time, reigning NBA MVP Nikola Jokic.

Ja Morant versus Zion Williamson in the first round would bring in plenty of eyeballs for broadcasters. Bourbon Street would lose out on a Game 7 at home to Beale Street though, and the Grizzlies have lost only four home games all season. The Pelicans have won just 10 road games this year. Would Herb Jones find a way to contain Morant in six games?

Ja Morant and Zion Williamson — Apr 9, 2022; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) talks with New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (right) after a game at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Christine Tannous-USA TODAY Sports

Squeaking in as the sixth seed and getting to face the Sacramento Kings might be the best postseason sparring partner if New Orleans does not make a late-season run to a top-4 seed. The Kings, led by De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, do have the fourth toughest remaining schedule, however.

The Clippers have the second most difficult remaining schedule and Phoenix has the sixth toughest. The third and fourth seeds are both up for grabs but at least one franchise with those lofty hopes will have to play an elimination play-in game.

Home Court High Ground

It's best to hold the high ground or maintain aerial superiority in any battle. In the NBA, that means having a home-court advantage in a playoff series. As for why the Kings would be the best matchup for anyone handicapping the Pelicans as a potential playoff dark horse this summer, well, just look at the moves made by the next four teams.

The LA Clippers added Russell Westbrook to help Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. The Phoenix Suns just gave Chris Paul and Devin Booker the option of passing to Kevin Durant. The Dallas Mavericks paired Luka Doncic with Kyrie Irving. The longshot Minnesota Timberwolves (+25000) traded away a ransom for Rudy Gobert so that Karl Anthony-Towns and Anthony Edwards had backstop help on defense.

Dallas is more than dangerous. The Clippers, looking healthier than ever, made a conference finals run despite lingering health issues. Minnesota is starting to figure things out. Durant and Booker running the wings around Paul is a potential dynasty threatened only by Father Time.

Dec 9, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (1) dunks the ball against Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) and forward Torrey Craig (0) during the second half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Running into any of these teams would present a huge challenge for a young New Orleans team still looking for a signature playoff win. The Pelicans match up better with Dallas and Minnesota, especially after the Josh Richardson trade.

Any Clippers conversation depends on Kawhi. A rematch against Phoenix would produce even more fireworks than last year's tilt if Williamson is healthy. Zion's 360 dunk sealed a victory in the Smoothie King Center earlier this season. It also helped stoke the fires of a budding rivalry but save the Suns for the second round this time.

Getting Dallas before they have time to build up chemistry would be a good interdivisional series. Luka and Kyrie versus Zion and B.I. would be appointment viewing. New Orleans versus Minnesota would be a slugfest but seems more like an undercard on the postseason's first-round billing.

Play-In Pressure & Cooked Championship Dreams

The pressure cooker atmosphere of playing for one of the four NBA Play-In Tournament spots might expose the cooked dreams of two of these contenders. It could also be a catalyst for a young squad like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Thunder, much like it was for Brandon Ingram's Pelicans last season.

The Warriors are used to coasting a bit down the stretch. Now with that luxury gone, Golden State's dynasty might just be overdone. This aging roster is being taxed more than usual and the rookie contracts cannot be counted on in big minutes. It's why they traded away former second-overall pick James Wiseman.

Brandon Ingram drives on Westbrook — New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram (14) is defended by Los Angeles Lakers guard Russell Westbrook (0) as he drives to the basket in the second half at Crypto.com Arena.

Likewise, the Los Angeles Lakers are still trying to find the right recipe for LeBron James to chase another title. Further up the coast, Dame Lillard's loyalty to the Portland Trail Blazers (+50000) will be tested again this summer. Another failed season in Portland would probably be enough for all concerned parties to say they tried their best but it's time to refresh the menu.

Oklahoma City (+5000) would consider any type of postseason game a success. Gilgeous-Alexander is a bonafide All-Star and foundational building block committed to the rebuild. It's a very similar situation to where the Pelicans were in previous seasons.

Still, the Pelicans are aiming higher than the play-in scenario. The Lakers, Thunder, Warriors, and Trail Blazers have the talent to take away any postseason hopes quickly. Much like the Pelicans run to overcome the Clippers last season, every potential play-in team is dangerous.

If the Pelicans are facing this fate, they cannot be picky about opponents. Handicapping NBA Finals odds would be akin to daydreaming at that point. They'd just have to fight for every bucket in hopes of getting one more game.