Pelicans Trade Market Index: Surplus Salaries
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The NBA trade deadline is still two months away but the unofficial start to trade season has already passed. Over 70 free agents who signed with their teams in the offseason became eligible to be traded on December 15. A few more All-Star caliber options will be available in January. However, it would be surprising to see the New Orleans Pelicans rush into a swap this early in the season.
There were only four trades completed last January. New Orleans swung for the fences in a near-deadline deal for CJ McCollum and Larry Nance Jr. last year but they had to wait out the market. Still, the Pelicans needed to shake up the roster around Brandon Ingram in order to make a playoff run and the deal with the Portland Trail Blazers worked out fabulously.
Now the David Griffin-led front office can navigate the NBA trade market from a position of strength sitting atop the Western Conference standings. They have more draft capital and financial flexibility around the luxury tax and salary apron than the other contenders. The Pelicans not only have the best record, but they are also still waiting for Brandon Ingram to come back from a setback in his toe rehabilitation.
Nov 4, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram (14) shoots the ball against Golden State Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga (00) during the first quarter at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports
Market Analysis: Negotiating From Strength
There is not much loose cash or empty space in the trade market. New Orleans should not be outgunned in any bidding war. It's just a matter of how much they might have to overpay as a small market team with lots of desirable assets.
The Indiana Pacers and San Antonio Spurs have some cap room but still will need to trade salaries that are relatively close. Teams like the Boston Celtics ($6.9 million and $5.9 million), Denver Nuggets ($9.2 million), LA Clippers ($9.8 million), Oklahoma City Thunder ($10.2 million and $4.2 million), and Utah Jazz ($9.8 million, $9.7 million and $6.8 million) have large trade exceptions.
There aren't many players who are options to fill those spots though. The top teams with NBA Finals aspirations only have so many minutes available around their stars. How much would New Orleans be willing to give up just to find 12-15 minutes for a new rotational piece that might not see time in the playoffs?
Forcing a move goes against this front office's standard operating procedure from the last few years. A course reversal now would jeopardize future flexibility and the current organic, family culture that permeates the building now. These Pelicans are largely a homegrown group that is still learning to play together. There is no real pressure to break up one of the youngest cores in the NBA.
So let's look at how the front office has found a way to reshape the organization since 2019.
Dec 11, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (1) high fives guard CJ McCollum (3) during the third quarter against the Phoenix Suns at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports
Griffin has leveraged the desperation of the Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, and Portland in the last three deals. The Lakers needed Anthony Davis to keep LeBron James in contention for another ring. The Bucks needed a move for Jrue Holiday to show Giannis Antetokounmpo that Milwaukee was the right spot to sign a new five-year deal. Portland needed to split up McCollum and Dame Lillard for a fresh start.
Those teams were obvious options to exploit in a deal. It will be tougher to find a contender looking to make an all-in move right now. The top teams in each conference have already made moves this off-season. The Play-In places might be the place to find value. The Miami Heat, Toronto Raptors, Indiana Pacers, Utah Jazz, and Atlanta Hawks all make sense for several reasons.
Griffin's Untouchables
Sometimes it is easier to work backward on a problem. Find out what you're not willing to do first so that those issues stay off the table.
For instance, Griffin shared during exit interviews that other teams were told Willy Hernangomez was untouchable in trade talks. Including the Eurobasket MVP in any deal was a non-starter. Hernangomez was too talented and on too good of a contract to just give away. His character was a big part of what kept the locker room together after a 1-12 start.
Without hearing it from the front office directly, it can be assumed Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, Jose Alvarado, CJ McCollum, and Dyson Daniels are untouchable assets. Williamson and Ingram are "partners in crime" according to Zion. Both All-Stars just inked new five-year deals with no options to stay in New Orleans. The other four are promising draft picks from the past two summers.
Everyone else is up for sale, at the right price even Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr. The Untouchables list is full of backcourt options that can initiate the offense. Kira Lewis Jr. might be the odd man out in a roster consolidation. The Pelicans need another wing and more versatility in the frontcourt.
The extremes between Nance Jr. and Valanciunas make it hard to match up with some of the quirkier teams that have had New Orleans' number the past few years, like the Utah Jazz. They do not need to be sacrificed to change up the shape of the rotations though.
Naji Marshall and Devonte' Graham are still in Willie Green's good graces but what they offer going forward is not only known but limited in value for a playoff run. Marshall is a tough defender and Graham is a good floor-spacing marksman but both could be replaced. Both have skills that would be welcomed and given more time on other rosters.
Garrett Temple and Jaxson Hayes barely play as it is. Temple is on an expiring contract. Hayes will be a cheap option in free agency soon. I've confirmed from multiple sources that the Atlanta Hawks have asked about Hayes several times already. It is better to sell low now in a small move rather than to get nothing in return for Hayes this summer.
The NBA world knows the players the Pelicans have to offer. No front office is foolish enough to think a deal for Brandon Ingram is possible, not even for Kevin Durant. It's an open secret that ship has sailed and not just because the Brooklyn Nets are starting to find a groove.
There are good arguments for the Pelicans not making a move at all. New Orleans does not have to go out and make a move just to say they tried. The foundation for this core is all but set. There are a few salaries surplus to requirements but none that will hold the team back in the coming years.
The city has embraced this team all the way down the roster. For the first time since winning a championship with LeBron James in Cleveland, David Griffin can approach the trade market from a position of power at the top of the standings.
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