Rebounding, Controlling Pace Will Help Pelicans Slow Down Thunder
NEW ORLEANS- The New Orleans Pelicans (42-40) have the talent to win two NBA Play-In Tournament elimination games. This is by and large the same squad that run through last year's edition. Playoff basketball is known for being a slower game and the Pelicans can use that to their advantage. However, a look at the numbers suggests there are times New Orleans needs to lean into the point-5 basketball Willie Green has been preaching all season.
The first rule of playoff basketball is simple: Do not run yourself into mistakes. The Pelicans are 16th in pace of play this season. The Thunder are 3rd. Point-5 basketball is a goal when it comes to decision making but this game calls for a more controlled pace from New Orleans.
Run when you have the chance, but be careful not to cough up extra possessions. It's a fine line and this team does not have that much experience in these situations.
The second rule of playoff basketball is: Create tough shots and clear the boards.
It will be tough to push the pace if they cannot win the rebounding battles. Brandon Ingram and Trey Murphy III have been caught ball-watching instead of boxing out and leaping to high-point rebounds all season. It has hurt this team at the worst times, from transition buckets to bounce-back free throw opportunities for the opposition.
Herb Jones will start the game guarding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who will hunt CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas anytime the Pelicans start switching pick-and-roll or ball-screen hand-off actions. Trey Murphy III and Brandon Ingram have the length to provide disruptive help defense and still jump into position for a rebound.
Force those bad shots from Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. Lu Dort will only do so much damage from the wing. Jonas Valanciunas should be able to handle the Williams duo for the most part. Valanciunas has grabbed 9 or more rebounds in 12 of the past 15 games.
Jaylin Williams (4.9 rpg) and Jalen Williams (4.5 rpg) are both in the top 10 rookie rebounders but they will not be able to double-up on Valanciunas. Still, what they lack in individual volume they make up for in group effort rebounding. Valanciunas will need help clearing the boards. If Larry Nance Jr. is ailing, this is the perfect game for Jaxson Hayes to show off his skill set.
New Orleans is 5th overall in defensive rebounding and 9th in offensive rebounds. Oklahoma City is 28th (defense) and 10th (offensive). They cannot clear the boards on defense so they chase second-chance points on the other end. It's an exploitable flaw but the Pelicans have been sloppy with outlet passes lately.
The Pelicans have to play their style but they must tailor the game plan toward slowing down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In 68 appearances, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.4 points (4th in the NBA), 5.5 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 steals (4th in the NBA), and just short of 1.0 block per game. It's one thing to run at SGA to tire him out, but running with him only plays to Oklahoma City's strengths.
Mar 11, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) dribbles against New Orleans Pelicans center Jaxson Hayes (10) during the first half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
New Orleans cannot let up as they did against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the regular season finale or that 20-point choke job against the defending champion Golden State Warriors two weeks ago. Oklahoma City finished tied with Brooklyn, Cleveland, and Indiana for the most 10+ point comeback wins this season with 17.
The Thunder ranked tied for fourth for the most 15+ point comeback wins this season with six. The Thunder thrived coming out of halftime this season. No halftime lead is comfortable as Oklahoma City owned the number one third quarter point differential in the NBA (+2.3).
Rebound and run all night and the rematch in Minnesota will be set for Friday. Relaxing too much and walking into some mistakes will send the Pelicans will be left to stew over a rough two-game losing streak while flying to their vacation destinations.
