All-Access Pistons Season Preview & Predictions
Hope; a feeling of expectation and desire for a certain thing to happen. The audacity of hope. The idea that at the end of the long dark tunnel there is light. It’s a feeling Detroit sports fans and Pistons fans specifically had forgotten about. Year after year of 29-53 seasons yielding 8th or 9th overall picks had the fanbase seeing very little light in the distance. The phrase “What can go wrong, will go wrong.” had become the expression of Detroit sports. Now, after a regime change and a number one pick, Pistons fans are having that audacity to feel a certain way about the team.
After the off-season, expectations for the young team had risen tremendously to the point where some were mentioning the Pistons and important games in mid-April in the same sentence. Since then, an 0-4 preseason has seemed to put a damper on those predictions.
Many questions swirl around the franchise as they prepare for the regular season opener Wednesday, October 19th at home against the upstart Orlando Magic: Do the preseason issues warrant any concern for the games that matter? Will Cade Cunningham take that next step? How much can Ivey contribute in year one? Is it time to compete, or to tank for the surefire number one pick, the unicorn Victor Wembanyama?
We’ll know the answers to these questions in due time, but for now, I’ll predict five conclusions that will be made at the end of the upcoming season and their final record.
Detroit Will Have One Of The Three Worst Records In The NBA After 20 Games
It could be a rough start to the season, for multiple reasons. While the preseason shouldn’t matter, there were clear problems that I think weren’t just the result of playing exhibition games. As I discussed in my article What’s Wrong with the Pistons, Detroit has genuine challenges with their defensive scheme. If Dwane Casey decides to continue switching everything, I think the Pistons will struggle especially in October and November as they get accustomed to it. How the scheme works out in the long term will remain to be seen, but one clear conclusion from the preseason is that currently, it’s not working.
Similar to the poor start they had last year, the lack of experience the Pistons have could be a killer early. Keep in mind this is a team with a rotation of mainly first, second, or third year players. Just as was the case in 2021, youth tends to struggle early in season as they learn the speed of the NBA.
To add onto the disadvantages the team faces, Detroit has a difficult schedule through the end of November. They have 6 back-to-backs in their first 20 games, including a tough west coast trip where they play the Suns, Clippers, and Nuggets. For a team with not a lot of experience playing together, the odds will certainly be against them.
For these reasons, I find it hard to see the Pistons finding success early on. However, that is not to say the season as a whole will be a wash. Fans should be in for a similar season to the one Detroit had last year, where the Pistons started playing competitive basketball as the year went on.
Cade Has A Modest Improvement On Year 1
Picked by many to win the Most Improved Player award, there are a lot of expectations for the former Oklahoma State cowboy. Following a rookie year in which he averaged 21.1 points, 6.5 assists, and 5.7 rebounds after the all-star break, it seems he has all the momentum heading into the new season.
I predict he gets off to a slow start considering how he looked in the preseason. Something seemed off with him, as he wasn’t ever really able to adjust to the rhythm of each game, averaging 10.5 points per game off 30.6% shooting from the field. In addition, he didn’t cut down on the turnovers that were a big concern from last year, averaging almost four a game through the four games.
Perhaps we can label it a lack of effort in warm up games, however, the drafting of Jaden Ivey seems to take some touches from No. 2. Often when both on the floor, Casey had Ivey handling the ball with Cade moving on the perimeter. The rookie will likely step on toes for some time until he finds his role in the starting five.
Despite the concerns, I’d be shocked if Cunningham isn’t able to show development from last year’s numbers. He added ten pounds over the summer and now has a year of professional basketball under his belt. As I said in an earlier article, while the shots didn’t go down in the preseason, his shot mechanics look improved from his rookie year. He appears to have a quicker and slightly higher release point. I’ll also add I think the acquisitions made by Troy Weaver all play into Cunningham's playmaking ability leading to the predicted rise in assists below:
20 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds per game off of 45% FG, and 33.5 3PT%
Jaden Ivey Finishes Top 3 In ROTY Voting
The No. 5 pick of this year’s draft showed real promise in the preseason. His opener against the Knicks was his best game by far ending with 16 points and ZERO turnovers. He fell into the expected troubles of a rookie guard of turnovers and inefficiencies in the other three games, but displayed his highlight-reel athleticism everytime he was on the court.
His speed combined with Cade Cunningham’s steady, but meticulous pace should be a great pairing for a long time. As said in the section earlier, there will be many games early on where the two are not in sync. Nevertheless, when you combine Ivey’s natural ability, Cade’s playmaking ability to get him open, and the large role he’ll immediately undertake on this young team, the potential for a strong rookie campaign is there.
I’ll definitely sound like a broken record at this point, but like the team as a whole, I predict Ivey will struggle early in the year like Cunningham did in 21-22. After he gets his feet under him, I think he’ll have a strong finish to the season and get his name in rookie of the year contention, but fall just short.
Bojan Bogdanovic Gets Traded At The Deadline
The trade for the Croatian veteran always seemed like a short term pickup. Bogdanovic will help the spacing of the team tremendously and convert many Cunningham passes into threes. He’ll provide experience and leadership Detroit desperately needs, but it isn’t an acquisition for a rebuild. The 33 year old is meant to provide perimeter shooting and defense for legitimate contenders. Detroit isn’t that, which Troy Weaver knows. Nonetheless, if the Pistons have the season I predict they’ll have, where they aren’t in playoff contention in February, the front office will be keen on dealing the veteran for long term assets. Who knows, perhaps through a Bogdanovic trade, Weaver turns Kelly Olynyk and Saben Lee into a first round pick.
Jalen Duren Starts By The End Of The Year
I’ve detailed how high I am on the former Memphis Tiger in many past articles, but I think Duren is the future at the center position for this franchise. Like Ivey, he has all the physical tools needed to succeed in the NBA. It’s just a matter of refining the raw gifts he has, which I think with time he will.
He has a natural fit with the guards of the Pistons to run the pick and roll and attack the rim. That along with his shot-blocking and rebounding ability will get him playing time. After many games, a little losing, and perhaps a Bojan Bogdanovic trade, Casey will give the rookie some time in the starting five.
The Final Record
Looking ahead at the season that starts Wednesday, the main goal of the season for the Pistons should be improvement on the season prior. There shouldn’t be a specific win total that qualifies a successful season. A modest increase in the win column and the development of their young talent should be the goals for this year. Detroit shouldn’t be expected to take part in any postseason ball, though it wouldn’t be too surprising if they’re in contention for the play-ins.
In looking at a final record, I think the team shows enough development to amp up the expectations for the 23-24 season. Through the predicted improvement of Cade Cunningham and Saddiq Bey along with the moves for the rookies and the vets, it’s clear this team should be better. I disagree with those saying the team needs to win 35, 40 games. That shouldn’t be the bar of success for a young team. Let the team develop naturally, just as Troy Weaver emphasizes building something sustainable rather than for the now. Oftentimes, short term struggles are worth the long term success, rather than the other way around.
