Fred VanVleet Isn't a Favorite in the 3-Point Contest, But Bet Against Him at Your Peril

Toronto Raptors guard Fred VanVleet sits at +550 to win the three-point contest, but his track record suggests never bet against him

A word of advice for those gambling on All-Star Weekend festivities: Don't bet against Fred VanVleet.

That's not to say he'll win. The Toronto Raptors point guard has been battling a knee injury since Monday and was unable to play in Wednesday night's victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves. As of last Saturday, he hadn't begun practicing for the three-point contest and it's quite possible he steps up to the rack on Saturday night without nearly as much practice as he had hoped for.

And yet, this is Fred VanVleet, Mr. Bet on Yourself. He may not be the favorite, at +550 to win the three-point contest, the fifth-best odds behind Trae Young at +450, and Zach Lavine, Patty Mills, and Luke Kennard at +500, per Bodog, but bet against him at your own peril. 

"He's kind of a set shooter. I think that bodes well in those things," Raptors coach Nick Nurse said of VanVleet. "He doesn't leave the floor much when he shoots his three. So I think that that always helps in that kind of environment."

Heading into the All-Star break, VanVleet sits second in the league in made three-pointers per game, behind only Steph Curry. He's shooting 40.1% from behind the arc, the fifth best of anyone in the contest behind Luke Kennard, Desmond Bane, Patty Mills, and Karl-Anthony Towns, respectively.

When it comes to catch-and-shoot shooting, VanVleet is the best. He's shooting 47.4% from behind the arc, the highest percentage of anyone averaging four attempts per game. His pull-up three-point shooting, meanwhile, is 34.1%, above league average, though not quite elite.

While the bulk of VanVleet's threes come above the break, he's the most deadly in the corners, where he shoots 44.4% in the right corner and 50% in the left.

Fred VanVleet's three-point shooting chart

NBA.com

Assuming he puts his money rack in one of those corners, it'll come down to exhaustion for VanVleet and making sure that ailing right knee is at or near full health if he wants to become just the second Raptors player in franchise history to lay claim to the three-point shooting crown.

Further Reading

Fred VanVleet discusses what makes Nick Nurse so special: 'It means the world'

3 takeaways from Toronto's 103-91 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves

Thad Young discusses what makes learning Toronto's concepts so difficult