Should Norman Powell Start? Stats Suggest It's Worth Considering
Statistically, Norman Powell is better when he starts games for the Toronto Raptors. It's a fact that's been true his entire career and was made clear last year when he split time evenly between the bench and the starting lineup. On Thursday that trend continued as Powell stepped into the starting lineup to replace Pascal Siakam who was benched for disciplinary reasons and scored 17 points in a 100-83 victory over the New York Knicks.
The stats are clear. He's averaged 13.3 points per game in his 90 career starts compared to 6.7 in his 221 games off the bench. Last season he averaged 18.7 points in 26 starts as opposed to 13.2 points in 26 games off the bench. On a per-minute basis, he's better when he starts both in his career and last season, and his Offensive Rating — a rate statistics that takes possessions into account — is better when he starts.
What exactly those stats mean is hard to tell.
It's possible Powell's scoring is better when he starts simply because he has more opportunity to score. While that reasoning does make some sense, Powell's usage rate when he starts compared to when he doesn't is about the same both in his career and last season.
It's also possible that Powell plays better because he's surrounded by better players when he starts. Therefore opposing defences pay him less attention when he's in the starting lineup compared to when he's leading a bench unit. Yet when he starts he's typically going up against the opponent's best players as opposed to their second unit on any given night.
To Powell, it has to do with being able to work his way into the flow of the game. When he starts, he can find the rhythm of the game with everyone else. Whereas when he comes off the bench, he's thrown into the fire, trying to adapt quickly to a game already ongoing.
"When we get the full team back you try to find your way, reading, executing, just trying to make plays when they come to you," Powell said. "I think every time I’ve started for the team guys have been out and I’ve been able to take advantage of that opportunity, that extra time on the floor just to get into the flow and finding a rhythm and playing my game."
Whatever the reasoning is Raptors coach Nick Nurse said the stats are worth consideration.
"The statistics really bear it out," Nurse said. "I think it needs some evaluation. The only part that makes it tough is who goes out of the starting lineup? And I don't know maybe we'll get to a point where we move it around a little bit."
When Nurse was first hired on to be the Raptors head coach in 2018, he said he had grand plans to totally reshape the way NBA basketball was played. He wanted to constantly rotate his starting lineup, shuffling in six, seven, or eight guys on a regular basis. For some reason, be it tradition or roster construction, he opted against it.
But Nurse has rarely shied away from bucking convention for optimization. If Powell is indeed better as a starter, then maybe something strange like a rotating starting lineup or moving a traditional starter to the bench à la Manu Ginobili to create a more optimal lineup with Powell starting is worth considering.
Powell certainly wouldn't be against it.
"I see myself as a starter in this league," he said. "Every time I get a chance to go out there and start it shows that I can fill that role and I try to take advantage of that. Obviously, I’ve always been a team guy, to focus on what the team needs of me, in whatever role that is."
