Raptors Share How They Feel About Their Lottery Odds & Pick Owed to San Antonio

The Toronto Raptors say they'll be happy with or without their first-round pick this year but the way they ended this season suggests their hope is to keep it

The Toronto Raptors have already shown their hand.

It wasn’t a coincidence the Raptors went 2-18 over the final five weeks of the season. Yes, injuries and personal absences played a part in Toronto’s struggles down the stretch, but the objective was clear: Get into the bottom six.

Mission accomplished.

A disastrous end to the year allowed the Raptors to jump ahead of the Memphis Grizzlies in the reverse standings and clinch what’ll now be a 45.8% chance to keep their first-round pick this summer.

The odds don’t favor Toronto.

More likely than not, the Raptors will send a pick somewhere between No. 7 and No. 10 to the San Antonio Spurs as compensation for last year’s Jakob Poeltl trade. There’s an argument to be made that Toronto should rip the Band-Aid off and just send the pick this year even if it’ll be a relatively high lottery pick.

This year’s draft class is widely considered one of the worst in recent years and it’s entirely possible a top-six pick in this year’s draft is less valuable than a pick in the middle of next year’s star-studded draft. If Toronto struggles again next year, the No. 7 or 8 pick in 2025 could be more valuable than the No. 6 pick this year.

The Raptors say they’re not thinking like that.

“Any way it goes we will be grateful, we’ll be happy,” Raptors president Masai Ujiri said earlier this week. “I don’t go into any situation in the NBA draft or free agency thinking negative anything about it.”

But Toronto’s actions this year suggest there is a preference.

Why tank to the finish line if you’re not trying to improve your lottery odds? Even if this is a bad draft class, it stands to reason there will be at least a few stars or high-end role players taken at or near the top of the draft. Everyone thought the 2013 NBA Draft was going to be a bust but it produced Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert as a pair of surprise studs.

And there’s no guarantee Toronto will be as bad next year.

If the Raptors do take a step forward next season and end up late in the lottery in 2025, Toronto will have missed this rare opportunity to add a top draft pick to pair with Scottie Barnes for the future ahead. That’s not to say good players can’t be found in the middle of the draft, but Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick, and a top-six pick in the 2024 draft is a more exciting core on paper than Barnes, Quickley, Barrett, Dick, and a prospect taken in the middle of the 2025 draft.

The organization won’t admit how they feel publicly. Frankly, there’s no use in getting hopes up if the odds are they’ll be dashed.

But when Mother's Day rolls around and the draft lottery starts next month, Toronto has shown how it feels about that pick, and landing in the top six could radically change how this rebuild looks going forward.