NBA Draft Film Room: Evaluating Jalen Duren for Spurs at No. 9
The San Antonio Spurs hold the No. 9 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft with plenty of different options at their disposal.
Duren stands at 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan and possesses elite athleticism for a big man. While the 18-year-old is considered a raw prospect, the Spurs would be making the selection with long-term results in mind.
Duren averaged 12.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks during his lone season at Memphis in 25.3 minutes per game. His production was inconsistent throughout the season, but that was expected considering he's an inexperienced player.
Duren displayed a heavy reliance on finishing near the basket as a play finisher for his main source of scoring. He was quite efficient on these plays as he produced 1.444 points per possession (93rd percentile) on finishes within the half-court.
Memphis operated much of their half-court offense with Duren playing behind the defense in the dunker spot or simply as a relief option in the paint in general. The playmakers in the unit often created favorable finishes by drawing the attention of the help defense just enough before making the pass.
Duren's physical tools enable the passer a greater margin for error when throwing him a pass around the rim. He showed an ability to still throw it down even when the pass wasn't the most accurate of deliveries. After switches occur, he could be a major lob threat against smaller defenders.
There are limitations to Duren's impact as a play finisher that will need to be improved by the player development personnel of whichever team ends up drafting him. Again, that's expected to be the case when considering he's only 18.
When the defense had the necessary positioning to prevent a free run at the rim, Duren often wasn't comfortable finishing against verticality and showed an awkward lack of touch on scoop finishes and push shots when feeling a defender's presence.
The franchise that drafts Duren will also need to work with him on his short-range jump shooting. There will be times when he's flashing into the gap or short rolling. He only attempted a total of 12 short-range jumpers in 29 games and shot 5-12 (41.7 percent).
Some big men do not necessarily have a reliable short-range jump shot but get by using a push shot. Duren has shown flashes of being capable of the same. If he were to be a screener for a ball handler that lacks a reliable pull-up 3-pointer like Dejounte Murray, Duren would need to use this more often.
Duren should benefit significantly as a rim roller with NBA spacing during regular-season basketball and against drop coverage matchups in the playoffs. There's typically significant reliance on high ball screens with four shooters spacing out. A talented playmaker can make the most of Duren's explosiveness.
Duren produced a highly efficient 1.308 points per possession on 26 of these plays when looking at just rolls to the basket. For a play finishing big playing starter minutes in the NBA, he'd be bound to average substantially more of these sequences.
With how teams like to switch against screens, that would become the go-to counter for the defense in the playoffs against a team that deploys Duren. At times, he may need to take advantage of having a mismatch by scoring in the post.
Duren wasn't particularly effective in the post in general at Memphis. He produced only 0.892 points per possession (48th percentile) in these situations while relying significantly on his right hand and a tendency to settle for tough jumpers.
Continuing to gain comfort using the left hand for jump hooks and against contact would lead to more straightforward plays for Duren to execute in the post. A defender who reads the scouting report can load up on his right hand or wall near the paint.
There are times when Duren looks crafty getting to his right hand for a finish on a drop step, when he gets to a turnaround jumper, or makes a play out of a face-up. The positive outcomes are more limited to being flashes instead of being consistent results.
When looking beyond the highlight reel, Duren's lows in the post when taking jumpers are more emblematic of the traditional experience at this stage of his career. If these plays can be reduced, he could become more of a reliable threat.
The team that drafts Duren will need to be patient as he develops offensively. It'll take time for him to become more comfortable using his left hand on finishes, improve his shooting touch, and display more control on post-ups when the defender neutralizes his preferred outcome.
Among the benefits of having a center as athletic as Duren is his speed. He makes it a point to hustle, whether he's making an effort to close out on a 3-point shooter or after his team hauls in a rebound or forces a steal.
Duren's greatest source of intrigue as an NBA player is his overall defensive impact. It's not often a team can add a big man with his tools. At the right landing spot, he could develop into being quite a valuable contributor.
Duren anchors any defense he plays for with an imposing paint presence. His explosiveness helps him cover up mistakes from his teammates made when teammates get beat out on the perimeter — requiring him to rotate over in help.
The foot speed and lateral quickness Duren has allows him to handle guarding out in space with effectiveness. Against teams with a dynamic perimeter shot creator, it's helpful to have a big man that can play close to the level on ball screens and handoffs.
Duren can play close to the level and use his quickness to impact the guard's finish attempt at the rim. Not utilizing drop coverage can take away the gap a lot of guards like to get into using high ball screens, while off-ball defenders can stay home more on shooters.
Duren is lighter on his feet than most when it comes to containing players out in space. There will be many situations when switching is required for a big man. Many bigs struggle with having to sag off and give up a pull-up from deep or engage too tight out on the perimeter and give up a drive.
Duren's closing speed offers some truly dynamic outcomes on defense that can change the momentum of a game by getting the crowd engaged. The offense can expect to make a simple play in transition but instead gets blocked at the rim.
It remains to be seen which prospects will be available by the time the Spurs are on the clock with the No. 9 overall pick. If Duren hasn't been selected yet, San Antonio could benefit from giving him serious consideration in order to add a more dynamic long-term center prospect to develop.
There aren't many teams picking earlier than the Spurs that will likely look to draft a center. On most mock drafts, the earliest Duren is slotted to go is No. 7 to the Portland Trail Blazers with the New Orleans Pelicans at No. 8 also being a possibility.
With Jakob Poeltl signed through the 2022-23 season, Duren could be eased into a major role as he develops in the short term. The Spurs could even look to get a new contract done with Poeltl if they feel Duren needs more time — assuming Poeltl agrees to it.
You can follow Grant Afseth on Twitter at @GrantAfseth.
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