CBS Sports Taking Suns' Under Win Total This Year
The Phoenix Suns are once again expected to be one of the top teams in the league.
With a roster that's proven capable of going deep into the postseason and a head coach fresh off winning the league's Coach of the Year award, there's no reason for Phoenix to not find themselves in contention to win the west this season.
Some aren't willing to drink the juice, however.
In CBS Sports' predictions for win totals this season, analyst Sam Quinn is taking the under on Phoenix's projected win total of 52.5:
CBS Sports Taking Suns' Under on Win Total This Year
The pick: Under 52.5
"We usually have to do a bit of speculating when it comes to measuring team chemistry, but the Phoenix Suns have saved us some time by dumping all of their skeletons neatly onto the front lawn," said Quinn.
"Deandre Ayton, who tried to leave for Indiana over the summer, told us on media day that he and Monty Williams hadn't spoken since their dustup in the middle of Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals. Jae Crowder wants a trade so badly that the Suns didn't even make him come to training camp. Their owner got suspended for a year and now plans to sell the team.
"Draymond Green punched Jordan Poole at practice and the Warriors still don't have the worst vibes in their own division.
"But there are some concerning basketball trends here as well. Only three point guards aged 37 or higher have ever started 50 or more games in a season: John Stockton, Steve Nash and Jason Kidd. That's obviously fine company to keep, but it's worth noting that they topped out at 13.4 points per game. Paul's scoring already saw a decline last season.
"It's likely to continue moving in that direction. His defense became an issue in the first round against New Orleans. His health has been an issue for 15 years.
"It's even fair to wonder how much longer he'll be able to maintain his historic excellence as a clutch table-setter. Phoenix had a patently absurd +33.4 net rating in the clutch last season, which lapped the entire field with Milwaukee in second at +15.9. Paul teams tend to be excellent in the clutch. He's led the Suns, Thunder and Rockets to the NBA's best clutch net rating in separate seasons.
"But if Paul is running out of gas and the Suns aren't quite so dominant in clutch games? Well, their regular-season record probably tumbles a bit. The Suns went 33-9 in games that included NBA-defined clutch minutes last season. We can say relatively comfortably that they won't be 24 games above .500 in such situations again because only three other teams have ever done that: the 2006 Mavericks, 2013 Heat and 2016 Warriors.
"There are real depth questions here as well—though we won't get a complete picture until we know what Crowder is traded for. Cam Johnson sliding into the starting lineup deprives the bench of its primary scorer. Cameron Payne's shooting percentage plummeted after he became one of the league's feel-good comeback stories in 2021. Dario Saric replacing JaVale McGee has a ton of upside.
"Saric-led lineups, particularly those in which he played backup center, were dominant for Phoenix in his first two Suns seasons, but you just never know what someone will look like coming off of a torn ACL. There will be more of a burden on Bismack Biyombo now that McGee is gone, especially if Ayton misses time or is eventually traded.
"This is the sort of pick that could look very stupid very quickly. Maybe the Dallas series was a COVID-induced anomaly and the Suns go back to destroying everyone once the regular season starts. But rarely does so much go so wrong for a team in such a short period of time without it proving somewhat sustainable.
"Unless Kevin Durant comes riding in on a white horse after a Brooklyn collapse, Phoenix appears to have taken a meaningful step backward.
"Is this the best way to bet on this team? No
"Whatever you're taking with Phoenix, do it with conviction. If you think they're the same team they were last regular season, go ahead and take their No. 1 seed odds at +550. They finished eight games ahead of the field last year.
"If you're more pessimistic, as I am, consider their play-in odds at +250. The Western Conference is so deep this season that even a minor slip could push a contender out of the top six."
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