Advanced Statistics Show OKC Thunder Center Chet Holmgren's Rookie Year was Historic
While it is likely that Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama will win the Rookie of the Year award, Chet Holmgren has still had a historic start to his career.
After breaking his foot ahead of the 2022-23 season, many observers wondered whether Chet Holmgren would be able to withstand the physicality of the NBA.
In addition to the injury, Holmgren's slim stature seemed to be a cause for concern to some fans and media members that he wouldn't be tough enough to square off against professional centers every night.
This year, however, Holmgren proved his doubters wrong, not only playing and starting all 82 games but having incredible success along the way. In his first NBA season, the former 5-star recruit averaged 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 2.3 blocks per game while shooting 53% from the field and 37% from 3-point range.
In addition to his impressive individual stat line, Holmgren was a core member of the Thunder's starting five in a year that saw Oklahoma City make a 17-win improvement from 2022-23 and secure the top seed in the Western Conference.
While San Antonio Spurs rookie center Victor Wembanyama also had an incredible season that will likely lead to the former No. 1 overall pick winning the Rookie of the Year award, Synergy Basketball's advanced statistics indicate that Holmgren is the most impactful rookie in the NBA over the past five years, edging out Wembanyama, Evan Mobley, Ja Morant and others.
Since the 2019-20 season, Holmgren has had the highest Synergy Player Impact among rookies by an entire point. Wembanyama and Holmgren are the only two players to have an SPI above two during their first year in the league over the past five seasons.
According to Synergy, SPI is the estimated number of "net points added above an average player, among NBA players". Per the company's website, SPI goes deeper than just statistics, taking into account game-changing plays that aren't recorded in a box score.
Synergy says Holmgren has added 235 points above an average player this season, while Wembanyama has added 158.
The data and analytics website also indicates that Holmgren allowed the second-lowest field goal percentage in the restricted area this season, trailing only Ivica Zubac.
What makes Holmgren's 52.2% allowed field goal percentage even more impressive, however, is that he has defended more attempts inside the restricted area than any other player in Synergy's top 10 list.
Ahead of known rim protectors like Joel Embiid, Brook Lopez and defending Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr., Holmgren has proved to be one of the best interior defenders in the league as a rookie despite not having as big of a frame as the aforementioned centers.
If the Thunder's star big man can continue to improve over the offseason, he will likely be an All-Star caliber player as soon as next year. With incredible offensive and defensive upside, Holmgren has helped transform Oklahoma City into a true contender in the Western Conference.
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