The Biggest Statistical Hurdle Between Damian Lillard and MVP
Damian Lillard is finally being appreciated the way he deserves.
Don't let the ridiculous tiebreaker rules that prevented him from becoming an All-Star starter for the first time detract from the larger growing narrative league-wide. Lillard's status as one of the game's best offensive players is ironclad now, and any pervading doubts about the tangible impact of his leadership have basically been erased.
Lillard, the basketball world knows, is truly one of the best players in the NBA, every bit deserving of his place in the early discussion for MVP. But there's a difference between being a candidate and being a favorite. Outside Rip City, at least, Lillard's status in the race for basketball's highest individual honor is better described as the former – and a single statistic helps distill why.
Portland, sapped of usage and playmaking for over half the season with C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, has never been more reliant on Lillard for success offensively. The Blazers score 17.1 points more per 100 possessions with Lillard on the floor compared to the bench, second-best in the league, per Cleaning the Glass.
Who ranks first in that category? Steph Curry. Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic round out the top-four.
Those players' standing in the MVP pecking order is a matter of debate, but their candidacies aren't. Neither is that of LeBron James, whose rippling influence as the Lakers' cultural tone-setter comes somewhat close to matching Lillard's.
All of which begs a question: What is it about Lillard's MVP resume that separates him from other leading candidates?
It's not the massive discrepancy between the Blazers' offensive ratings with him on and off the court, which is the real linchpin of his case. Curry, Embiid and Jokic match him there right now, and it stands to reason that gap will narrow a bit once McCollum returns and Terry Stotts solidifies his playing rotation.
As mind-blowing as Lillard's been in the clutch, his play during critical moments of close games doesn't so starkly stand apart from James and Embiid's how it does the rest of the league's. Very efficient in their own right with the game on the line, Jomes and Embiid also boast a better crunch-time plus-minus than Lillard, per NBA.com/stats.
Some of that's due to the superiority of their supporting casts, but defense looms large there, too. Embiid is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate, likely second in the running behind Rudy Gobert as it currently stands. The Lakers' 104.4 defensive rating when James plays without Anthony Davis would still top the league.
The limited effect of Lillard's defensive play – well, at least in a positive manner – always ensured his case for MVP would come from the other side of the floor. Needless to say, he's putting together an extremely compelling one.
But several other MVP candidates are doing the same, and one of them, Embiid, is making a major difference defensively – two-way impact that Lillard just won't ever duplicate.