Pregame: Blazers Need Win Against Depleted Pacers
Opponent: Indiana Pacers (29-31 overall, 6-4 last 10 games)
Offensive Rating: 111.3 (16th)
Defensive Rating: 111.4 (13th)
Net Rating: -0.1 (17th)
Where: Bankers Life Fieldhouse (Indianapolis)
When: 4:00 p.m. (PST)
Broadcast: NBC Sports Northwest/Bally Sports Indiana
Point Spread: Portland -5
Moneyline: Portland -230, +190
Over/Under: 241.5
Injuries/Health
- Indiana: Goga Bitadze (questionable), Jeremy Lamb (questionable), Domantas Sabonis (out), Myles Turner (out), T.J. Warren (out)
- Portland: Zach Collins (out)
Primer: There is no must-win game against a non-conference foe before the final few games of the regular season. Portland has 12 games to play before the playoffs or play-in tournament. There's still plenty of time for Terry Stotts' team to move back up in the standings and right its wayward ship.
But Tuesday marks the beginning of a six-game road trip, and the Blazers' next four opponents all have winning records. The last time they beat a team that was on the right side of .500 at the time of tipoff? March 19th, before Jusuf Nurkic returned and Norman Powell arrived.
The Pacers are 4-1 without Myles Turner and Damontas Sabonis this season, but that's no real indicator of their quality under those unfortunate circumstances. Recent wins over the Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic can only be so telling. The potential absence of Goga Bitadze only adds to Indiana's dearth of options up front.
Small-ball lineups sans a traditional big man have actually done well for Nate Bjorkgren this season, per Cleaning the Glass, pushing the pace with abandon and winning the turnover battle on both ends. Beloved as Edmond Sumner, Jakarr Sampson and Oshae Brissett are among Indianapolis die-hards, it's a clear win for Portland that the Pacers will be forced to downsize full-time or for extended stretches on Tuesday.
Jusuf Nurkic, playing his best basketball of the season, should have no trouble finishing inside against the Pacers, as a post-up option or roll man. He and Enes Kanter might have dominated the offensive glass even if Sabonis and Turner were active. Indiana ranks dead last in defensive rebounding rate, per NBA.com/stats.
The Pacers have overhauled their shot shart under Bjorkgren, trading hordes of long twos for the league's highest share of shot attempts at the basket, according to Cleaning the Glass. Winning the on-paper math is a start, of course, but Indiana's personnel doesn't especially lend itself to prioritizing the rim to that extent.
The Pacers have several dangerous shooters, led by Doug McDermott, enjoying another banner season. Malcolm Brogdon provides their best blend of penetration and perimeter shooting, while Caris LeVert – down to 27.6 percent from three – does most of his damage via slithery drives to the paint.
Don't forget about T.J. McConnell defensively, by the way, especially in the backcourt. The NBA's steals leader is one of its most enterprising, opportunistic thieves in years.
Bottom Line: The Blazers are significant road favorites for a reason. Anything less than a comfortable win would be very disappointing, especially considering they're back at it with Memphis on Wednesday.