Pregame: Denver Is Still Dangerous Without Jamal Murray
Opponent: Denver Nuggets (37-20 overall, 8-2 last 10 games)
Offensive Rating: 117.0 (third)
Defensive Rating: 111.6 (14th)
Net Rating: +5.4 (fifth)
Where: Moda Center (Portland)
When: 7:00 p.m. (PST)
Broadcast: NBC Sports Northwest
Point Spread: Denver -1
Moneyline: Denver -118, Portland -102
Over/Under: 230
Injuries/Health
- Portland: Zach Collins (out), Derrick Jones Jr. (probable)
- Denver: Jamal Murray (out), Monte Morris (out)
Primer: Jamal Murray's torn ACL is arguably the most disappointing development of 2020-21. He leveled up this season as a shot-maker and defender, not only proving his stirring play in the Orlando bubble wasn't a fluke, but affording his delightful partnership with Nikola Jokic a real semblance of championship potential.
Denver's title window, thankfully, will remain open for the foreseeable future as long as Murray makes a full recovery. Any hope of legitimately competing for a championship this season, though, was lost when Murray went down in a heap on April 12th. As singularly brilliant as Nikola Jokic is, he can't lead the Nuggets to that promised land without another star next to him.
Don't sleep on Denver for the rest of the regular season, though. Michael Malone's team is 6-3 without Murray this season, with three of those victories coming since his injury – including a 17-point shellacking of the Miami Heat.
Jokic's all-time playmaking prowess at center helps mitigate the fallout of Murray's absence. His vision, creativity and size as a passer makes him one of the most additive offensive players in the league, especially playing with oversized, active cutters like Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon. Jokic is one of the most unstoppable isolation players in basketball, too, and doubling him is death when the Nuggets are making open threes.
But it's telling that Denver's offensive rating with Jokic on the floor and Murray off dips to 114.2, per NBA.com/stats, over eight points lower than the sky-high mark when they play together. Jokic's usage jumps up to 32.8 percent sans Murray, a considerable spike accounted for by additional shot attempts and an even higher assist rate.
Jokic sops up most of the usage owed to Murray, but the Nuggets' offensive ecosystem also allows for others to easily take on larger roles. Porter is denver's bonafide second option now, though still does most of his work as a cutter and off-ball shooter while sprinkling in isos on overmatched defenders. Gordon fills those same gaps in a less efficient, less spectacular manner, while Will Barton serves as Denver's most threatening ball-screen operator.
Denver isn't as big as normal without Murray, but it's size will be an issue on both ends for Portland regardless. Porter's jumper is unblockable, and like Gordon, he's skilled enough to overwhelm smaller defenders when Jokic finds him on backcuts and quick duck-ins. Both players are also big enough to at least offer some resistance at the rim when Damian Lillard ball screens stretch the Nuggets' aggressive defense extra thin.
Facundo Campazzo's size won't be a problem, but his genius passing and relentlessly pesky defense could play a factor on Wednesday given the absence of Monte Morris, too.
Bottom Line: The Blazers are full-strength, and still looking for any type of statement win. If Lillard and Nurkic play well, maybe Wednesday is when Portland finally gets it.