49ers Changes to Go From In The Mix to a Ring
With three NFL Final Fours in four years, the Niners are knocking on the door but can’t get through it. The team’s current belief system needs to change, not by much, but by enough. Repeating the approach repeats the results, so tweaks are necessary.
The Niners are stuck between "in the mix" and a ring. How do they get unstuck? How do they put a ring on it? Having covered past 49ers champions my answer is teams must learn from their losses and act on that knowledge, perspectives must evolve.
Systems get you to the championship, matchups win them
Early playoff games go to the team with superior talent overall. The championship games tend to be similar in talent, so systems and talent give way to matchups and coaching. The problem for the Niners is Kyle Shanahan is betting on his system to win it all. When winning shifts from system to matchups in the Final Four, the holes in Niners lineups are exposed and they can lose as a result.
The right side of the 49ers' offensive line is cheap by design to fit the team’s cap blueprint. To meet Shanahan’s system needs they are selected for run blocking. Then the Niners get to the championship round facing a team with an elite pass rush across the line and pass protection is a mismatch on the right side.
The losses share a common theme of pass protection breakdowns vs. Philadelphia, the Rams, and Kansas City. This draft upgraded blocking at tight end but not on the line.
The Niners will have their chance to finally address tackle and stay within their cap blueprint in the 2024 draft. The first-round pick will tell us if the Niners refuse to learn from their losses or understand the matchup point and act on it. Tackles should be available in the late first who will play at right tackle in the upcoming college season.
Developing counters for Brock Purdy
In the first round of the playoffs, Seattle Head Coach Pete Carroll used his “Robber” defense against Brock Purdy, flooding the field with safeties to deny the short to intermediate passing lanes. The tactic failed due to the lack of a pass rush, but the Seahawks added 4.5 edge Derick Hall in the draft and have quality pass rushers from last year’s draft ready to step up. Hall had eight sacks and 47 pressures for Auburn this past season.
Dallas Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn took note of Carroll’s scheme and deployed it effectively in the next round, holding Purdy and the Niners to 19 points with a flooded field and constant pressure.
The Niners will see this tactic again and Kyle Shanahan will need to have counters ready. Purdy is not a reliable threat pushing the ball down the field, so Shanahan will be tested and will have to get creative. He is more than up to the task, but it’s a test he and Purdy must pass when Brock returns to the field.
Playing for January in September
The last two seasons, the Niners have stumbled out of the gate going 3-4 and 3-5 to open the year. Even though they closed with a long win streak the NFC Championship was held in Philadelphia, and could be again if the Niners go in an early hole.
It should be noted that when the Niners advanced to the Super Bowl against Kansas City they were the No. 1 seed. They need to start well early but face a transition on defense under new Coordinator Steve Wilks, and possibly at quarterback if Purdy is not ready to open the season.
The offensive line will have a continuity carryover from last year on the left side. Right guard will be led by Spencer Burford, but he faces competition, while Colton McKivitz has the right tackle starting spot.
Given that the offense righted itself after Christian McCaffrey’s arrival, he may act as a guardrail to enable the offense to succeed early. That could be a necessity, as the NFL may want an NFC Championship rematch to begin the year, with the Niners traveling to Philadelphia once more.
The upcoming NFL schedule is expected to be announced on Thursday, May 11.
Get to the root of the injury problem
Each year NFL Outsiders measures how many adjusted games lost a team faces due to injury. Each year the Niners find themselves one of the 10 most injured teams in the league. This goes back 10 years, preceding the arrival of Shanahan and Lynch.
While Shanahan goes through a light camp and preseason, his best attempts at avoiding injury still fail. Is it Levi’s Stadium? Is it having the practice facility next to a power plant? Is it the physical playing style? An approach to play calling where the system is king and players are pieces to be plugged in? Not applying a rotation at running back and riding one guy too long? The answers are no closer today than 10 years ago.
The light camp doesn’t seem to change things. Given the need for answers, and that approaches have gone unchanged in recent years, a tweak in approach may shine some light on the root causes behind the injuries. All that is known is do the same thing and history predicts the Niners will be one of the league’s 10 most injured teams yet again.
The change at kicker
Some folks have a core philosophical issue with drafting a kicker at 99, a few veins popped. Jake Moody went that high because the league was that sold on him, he was that much better than the other kickers drafted and the proverbial Pro Bowl undrafted free agent that the critics keep referencing. It’s up to Moody to prove the Niners and the league right.
The first change is field goal attempt distance. Moody hit a 63-yarder on his Pro Day and a 69-yarder in practice. The longest field goal in the league last year was 62 yards. At the end of the first half, the Niners can now attempt a field goal from their opponent’s 45.
The second change is kickoffs. The Niners ranked 26th in the league in their opponent's average starting field position. Moody only had 24% of his kickoffs returned at Michigan last year, Robbie Gould had 45% for the Niners. More touchbacks can be a subtle but important change for the 49ers' special teams.
More blitzing
DeMeco Ryans wasn’t a big believer in blitz packages. Steve Wilks is. Part of the reason the Niners traded up for Ji’Ayir Brown is his ability to blitz, he had 4.5 sacks last year. Dee Winters had nine sacks and 30 pressures at TCU. Blitzing is a new club in the bag for the Niner defense.
Will the pass rush return to 2019?
In signing defensive tackle Javon Hargrave the Niners are hoping the front four has a resurgence this year. Hargrave played on a stacked line in Philly with 11 sacks and he assisted others by drawing so much attention. He does not have a proven impact edge outside him. Whether Robert Beal Jr. or Drake Jackson can fill that role we’ll see. If the pass rush doesn’t fire on all cylinders due to an inconsistent speed edge outside Hargrave, the Niners may need to turn to a deadline deal once more.
