49ers Draft Options in the 1st and 2nd Round
A player value snapshot before the NFL Draft Combine has value since it’s based solely on the game film. What’s needed is to balance that with the Combine numbers to project players into the league. The drills begin on the 29th.
Using big boards and mocks of proven draft evaluators, here’s a look at the before picture.
Trade Up
The Faithful dream of a big move up in the draft for an impact offensive tackle but Kyle Shanahan is more likely to be interested in weapons. Swiss army knife Blake Bowers of Georgia would be lethal in his offense, and LSU receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has the closest skill set to Brandon Aiyuk.
A trade up for either player would require Aiyuk, possibly to Indianapolis at 15, who would see his value as the primary receiver and for their run game. I expect the Niners to keep Aiyuk and that likely ends a big move up.
A small bump is more viable, 31 and 98 to Tampa Bay for 26. The Niners jump ahead of three teams looking at similar positions in Arizona, Buffalo, and Detroit.
1st Round: Mr. Robinson’s Neighborhood?
Penn State’s Chop Robinson should be one of the stars at the Combine, a twitchy athletic edge from the program that produced Micah Parsons. Missouri’s Darius Robinson could be the replacement for Arik Armstead, an inside-outside defensive lineman. If the Niners fall in love with either player I could see them moving up to 26.
Players available at 26 and maybe 31:
OT: Tyler Guyton, Jordan Morgan
IOL: Graham Barton
DL: Chop Robinson, Darius Robinson
DB: Ennis Rakestraw, Cooper DeJean
Fans will demand that a right tackle be taken first. Guyton has prototypical size and good feet. However, he's 6-7 and plays it, needing to play lower for leverage. He lacks NFL strength, and has only started in 15 games. Morgan is all you can ask for in pass protection but isn’t there yet in the run game, the inverse of Shanahan’s priorities at the position so I believe the Niners pass.
Barton is the offensive lineman to watch. NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein describes Barton as a perfect fit for the offense and he should know. Zierlein studied Gary Kubiak in Houston running the Shanahan offense, and Zierlein’s father is a long-time OL coach.
Shanahan doesn’t value right tackle but does value center, Barton’s projected best position in the league. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com predicts Barton to the Niners. It’s worth noting that Jake Brendel will be 32 in September.
Rakestraw attacks the run and is an aggressive corner, he’s one of my draft crushes along with Amarius Mims, but I don’t think either one happens. The Niners don’t take corners in the first and Mims is already gone, along with center Jackson Powers-Johnson.
Darius Robinson doesn’t have the fast first step Kris Kocurek demands and stays blocked. In the one-on-one drills that drew raves in Mobile, one draft evaluator astutely pointed out that Robinson used the excessive room of the drills to his advantage and won’t have that in games.
Chop Robinson has the athleticism to rise up the draft boards through his performance at the Combine. He has the requisite first-step explosion and speed-to-power skills the Niners covet.
Scenario 1: The 49ers trade picks 31 and 98 to Tampa Bay and select Chop Robinson at 26. They need to move away from relying on free agency upfront and take yet another draft swing at edge. Robinson has all the traits Kocurek values most. It’s the Niners, of course they take DL first.
Scenario 2: The Niners stay put at 31 and take Barton. He starts immediately, likely beginning at guard and then migrating to center. It’s Shanahan, of course he’s not going to take a right tackle.
I’m so jaded.
2nd Round: Let It Flip
As the draft currently falls in mocks pick 63 is a dead spot where players the Niners would likely target go at least five picks earlier or five picks later. They can combine 63 and 94 to conceivably go up to Pittsburgh’s pick at 51 or drop down from 63. The problem with going up is the sweet spot of this draft is around 33-55 and teams will be reluctant to deal.
Players available from 51 to 70:
IOL: Christan Haynes, Hunter Nourzad
OT: Kiran Amegadjie
IDL: Michael Hall, Ruke Ohrororo, Leonard Taylor III
Edge: Marshawn Kneeland, Adisa Isaac, Jonah Ellis
LB: Payton Wilson
DB: T.J. Tampa
Fan favorites such as BYU tackle/guard Kingsley Suamataia and Michigan DT Kris Jenkins Jr. fall between the Niners' first two picks. Both should work out well at Indy and may rise.
On the offensive line, Haynes is the best talent of the group but may not last to 63. Nourzad is getting buzz and is a fast riser at center. Amegadjie is also being talked up, but since he wasn’t battle-tested at Yale he will need a year of development.
Kneeland is rising quickly, the best edge setter. The LBs are talented and Tampa should run fast at Indy.
Scenario 1: After dealing up for Robinson the 49ers choose to stay at 63 and get lucky as Haynes falls to them.
Scenario 2: Hall has an explosive first step, comes off blocks quickly, and is stout against the run. He fits the Niner profile. Tampa would be a great pick but requires a significant trade up.
This is the before picture, on to the after and the testing at the Combine.
