5 Players to Watch in the 49ers' 2021 Home Finale
The Trey Lance Era might officially be underway.
The San Francisco 49ers (8-7) look to rebound and keep hold of their sixth seed in the NFC Playoff Picture with a win over the streaking Houston Texans (4-11) at 1:05 p.m. (PT) on Sunday.
Here are Five Players to Watch in the 49ers’ home finale:
Brandin Cooks, Wide Receiver, #13 — Houston Texans
The 49ers’ secondary was killed on 3rd-and-long in last week’s loss to the Titans, allowing 9-of-16 third downs to move the chains.
Although the Texans don’t have any A.J. Brown-caliber weapons to bully their way to a first down, they are the 14th-ranked team in third down conversions (40.38 percent) and are tied for fourth best over their last three games (50 percent) per teamrankings.com.
In fact, despite Tennessee's dominance on third down last week, the Texans were better in their win over the Chargers with a 69.23 percent conversion rate.
With Davis Mills under center, Houston has converted 34.7 percent of their third down passing plays (per Stathead).
Mills’ top target by far is Cooks, who has 16 catches on 25 targets for 187 yards, three touchdowns and 12 first downs on third down.
Cooks, who missed last week’s game on the Covid list, will be the one to watch when the Texans get forced into third-and-long.
Tremon Smith, Cornerback/Kick Returner, #24 — Houston Texans
Despite the surprising win last week against the Chargers, Houston was very short-handed in the secondary.
Special teamer Tremon Smith stepped into a starting role and was picked on as a result. Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert targeted Smith seven times, completing six passes for 62 yards, a touchdown and a 143.2 pass rating.
He’ll likely move back into more of a dime and nickel package role with Terrance Mitchell back, but his impact on the game will not be limited as he’ll also return to his role on special teams.
Smith had a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown this season. When the 49ers lose, their special teams often have something to do with it. You do the math.
Marcell Harris, Outside Linebacker, #36 — San Francisco 49ers
Without linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and Dre Greenlaw (groin), and possibly no third safety Talanoa Hufanga (knee), the 49ers need linebacker Marcell Harris to step up.
The Texans ran the ball right down Los Angeles’ throat last week as veteran Rex Burkhead totaled 149 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 22 attempts.
Those numbers might scare some, but the Chargers are possibly the worst run defense in the NFL. They’ve allowed 2,104 rushing yards (fourth worst), 4.7 yards per carry (tied for third worst) and 130 rushing first downs (most in the league).
The 49ers are not the best by any means, but they’re much better. They’ve allowed more than 100 rushing yards just once during their past seven games, and that was a 146-yard performance against Seattle where a 73-yard fake punt touchdown accounted for half the yards.
Harris, who has missed 19 percent of his tackle attempts (34-for-42) according to Pro Football Reference, will partner with All-Pro Fred Warner to stop Burkhead on the ground and through the air, while also defending rookie tight end Brevin Jordan in the red zone.
Jordan has become much more prominent with Mills under center. He has 13 catches on 17 targets for 130 yards, two touchdowns and eight first downs with Mills, compared to six catches on 10 targets for 39 yards and a touchdown with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback.
Ambry Thomas, Cornerback, #20 — San Francisco 49ers
Despite playing without his top target, Mills spread the ball around with ease against the Chargers.
The rookie threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns, one score going to another member of the Texans’ 2021 draft class, wide receiver Nico Collins.
Collins, Houston’s third-round pick out of the University of Michigan, will match up with collegiate teammate and fellow 2021 draft pick, cornerback Ambry Thomas.
Thomas’ debut NFL season has been rocky, but he showed some progress last week.
He broke up two passes and allowed just one completion against Tennessee, albeit a costly 42-yarder. Yet it was a drastic improvement over the previous game in which he allowed four completions on seven targets for 95 yards, a touchdown and a 141.4 pass rating (per Pro Football Reference).
It wouldn’t hurt for Thomas to have a good confidence-booster this week before a tough matchup against the NFC West-leading Rams.
Trey Lance, Quarterback, #5 — San Francisco 49ers
Who knows what the offense will look like if Lance indeed starts in place of the injured Jimmy Garoppolo (right thumb).
It definitely won’t look like a Garoppolo-led offense, but it should have more elements than the run-only one we saw in Lance’s last start (Week 5 at Arizona).
Enjoy this game and the wondrous possibilities of head coach Kyle Shanahan being forced to use Lance.
There will be some rookie mistakes. Every rookie quarterback has had them to varying degrees this season.
Yet there is the chance he gets hot and the 49ers head into the playoffs with their opponents having no game plan on how to stop Lance when he’s unleashed in Shanahan’s offense.
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