Four Questions: 49ers Super Bowl Edition, Part 2
49ers Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks has the most challenging magic act in Las Vegas this week, how to make Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid disappear.
For Kyle Shanahan, it’s a different sleight of hand, how to set up his weapons in space with blockers in front of them.
The Niners have opened games in their base defense in the playoffs and given up a field goal from the 11 to Green Bay and a touchdown to Detroit. Meanwhile, Kansas City scored two touchdowns and a field goal in their opening drives in the playoffs. The Niners can’t stay in base on the opening drive.
That’s one of the themes of this Super Bowl defensively. Wilks can stick to what he trusts and force Kansas City to execute on long drives, but that’s what the Chiefs do, score on long drives. To get off the field, Wilks will need to take big risks.
How can the 49ers win on defense?
Match up on personnel. When Kansas City plays two or more tight ends, sit a DB and add Javon Kinlaw to a five-man front. The Niners have been shredded on outside runs in the playoffs and can’t play their base defense against the Chiefs' use of 12 and 13 personnel with multiple tight ends.
While a five-man front can be effective in limiting Isiah Pacheco, the risk is Mahomes can light up defenses that stack to stop the run. To mitigate the risk, Wilks will need to focus coverage on KC’s top weapons Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice.
Mahomes can go to a third target, but it’s not how the Chiefs are accustomed to playing. There’s value in taking them out of their comfort zone, particularly given their high number of receiver drops this year.
Move Nick Bosa around, use overloads, and simulate pressure. Reid is known for designing pass protection schemes to take away the defense’s leading rusher. The Niners need to move Bosa around to attract attention and open the field for a blitzer.
Baltimore used an unbalanced line to dictate Kansas City’s pass protection assignments and then sent Kyle Hamilton for an unblocked sack. The Chiefs can be vulnerable in blitz recognition and Pacheco is undersized in pass pro.
The problem for Wilks is his secondary does not finish blitzes. He needs to send Dre Greenlaw or Fred Warner. Mask intent with assignments. Greenlaw lines up man on Kelce then blitzes as Charvarius Ward takes Kelce man up.
Go all out on 3rd and long. The value of a cover zero blitz isn’t just fast pressure but that every scrambling lane is closed. The goal isn’t sacks, it’s to get off the field. The way to do that is to speed Mahomes up and force him to throw the ball away.
Other third-down tactics can include doubling Rice or Kelce. 3rd down needs to be unexpected and connected, with tight coverage to enable the pass rush.
How can the 49ers win on offense?
All year long opposing defenses have said our top priority is stopping Christian McCaffrey. All year long they’ve failed.
This year 25 touchdowns, the league rushing title, and more than 100 yards of total offense in 14 games for McCaffrey. Even against an eight-man box, 4.8 yards per carry and 2nd in success rate.
Run, run, and run some more. In success rate per run, the Niners are 3rd, the Chiefs defense is 26th. Under center 26th, outside zone 31st. That said, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo knows all this and will game plan for it. This is where Shanahan needs to utilize play action to take advantage of the extra resources KC will spend to stop the run.
Free Deebo. Kansas City keeps talking about how their corners can stay with Deebo Samuel. L’Jarius Sneed is a great cover man, Trent McDuffie is strong in coverage and one of KC’s best open-field tacklers. All true.
The thing is, Deebo vs. the Chiefs corners man-up is just a part of the game plan. It’ll be Deebo in tunnel screens, receiver screens, and jet sweeps. The Niners will have multiple blockers between Deebo and his defender most of the time.
It’s a case of the Chiefs thinking in terms of their strength against a receiver in downfield coverage, and not thinking as Shanahan does. Shanahan knows Kansas City has physical corners and will design his plays accordingly.
Keep them guessing with Jauan Jennings. A personnel group with a 2nd tight end advertises a running play. The same formation with Jauan Jennings can be anything and will still be blocked well. More Jennings is a good idea.
Autopilot the blitz. Spagnuolo likes to bring the kitchen sink with exotic blitzes and simulated pressure. The Niners can offset that by emphasizing short quick throws as most of the first half passing plays. The blitz is coming, that’s nice the ball is already out. This allows Brock Purdy to get into a rhythm and the offense to get in a flow with success on early downs.
It’s about the players. Schemes put players in a position to succeed but ultimately championships are won on matchups. Kansas City’s defense has impressive stats, All-Pros, and a brilliant coordinator in his 5th Super Bowl. Yet this is still about who executes in the moment and the Niners have the best weapons in the league.
