Four Questions: Lions and Niners and Pairs
There are plenty of questions coming out of the Divisional Round of the playoffs, let’s get to it.
What worries you about Detroit?
1. The Lions can occupy the 49ers linebackers three ways: one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, one of the league’s fastest backs Jahmyr Gibbs is a run/pass threat, and Pro Bowl tight end Sam LaPorta is a key target on 2nd and 3rd down.
The 49ers depend on their linebackers heavily and Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has multiple ways to attack them on the ground and in the air.
Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw can’t be everywhere. The Niners must get better play from their safeties in this game, hopefully Ji’Ayir Brown returns to the field.
2. The Lions get home with 13 sacks in their last four games. Aidan Hutchinson and his spin move will go across the line throughout a game hunting for mismatches. He has eight sacks and 18 quarterback hits in his last four games.
Safety Ife Melifonwu has more sacks than Nick Bosa over the last six games, 4.5 to 2.5. Against Baltimore, pressure from blitzing corners led to a pick and a sack. Brock Purdy will need to have quick pass targets to beat the pressure.
Other concerns include the 49ers' run defense, whether Deebo Samuel will get targets (Decoy Samuel is not enough), the Lions' speed edge, Ambry Thomas, Bosa vs. Penei Sewell, and stopping Detroit in the 4th where Jared Goff has had success.
Where is Detroit vulnerable?
The Lions’ defense is feast or famine, the league leaders in pressure but 27th in passing yards and 30th in yards to receivers. They’re also 28th in missed tackles. All of this adds up to why it’s important that Deebo Samuel not just play but get the ball. Cornerback Cam Sutton will be a target.
Detroit’s offensive line is elite but injured. Former Pro Bowl left guard Josh Jenkins is out with a knee injury, replaced by 2nd-year UDFA/practice squad player Kayide Awosika. Jenkins has been rated in the top five in the league by Pro Football Focus in the playoffs, he’s a big loss for Detroit.
2nd Team All-Pro center Frank Ragnow is banged up with a sprained knee and ankle, he was rolled up on twice against Tampa Bay. This creates an opportunity for Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead.
What’s the view from 10,000 feet in the AFC Championship?
The AFC and the Super Bowl have been dominated by elite quarterback play for decades. This year represents a rare chance for the defense to win the day.
Baltimore’s defense is the most dominant side in the playoffs. The league leaders in scoring defense, turnovers, and sacks. Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald didn’t invent simulated pressure, but his team has perfected it.
Now enter Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and the Chiefs. Undefeated when they have faced the league’s top-ranked scoring defense.
If Baltimore goes on to win the Super Bowl this year, their defense will have stopped Mahomes, Miami, C.J. Stroud twice, and Kyle Shanahan twice (assuming the 49ers win the NFC Championship).
Why is it so successful? A case of great personnel optimized by a brilliant scheme, with All-World safety Kyle Hamilton as the head of the snake. Shanahan has advanced the game with positionless football on offense, now Macdonald has brought that approach to defense.
In a copycat league where a growing number of teams are running the Shanahan offense, look for a similar impact where teams will look to copy the Baltimore defense.
The Green Bay game exposed key weaknesses of the 49ers, what do you predict they’ll prioritize in the offseason?
The 49ers gave us a big hint at the trade deadline when they were rumored to be interested in trading for Patrick Surtain in Denver or Jaylon Johnson in Chicago. They want an impact cover corner.
This makes sense given the division, the emergence of Puka Nacua, the trio in Seattle, and Arizona projected to land Marvin Harrison Jr.
The options are essentially pairs. Cornerback to optimize the defensive line and shut down a growing list of impact receivers, edge to protect the secondary, or right tackle to optimize Brock Purdy and benefit the running game.
The Niners are fond of repeating what works. Charvarius Ward worked, they could try to shop for a corner again in free agency, but the best are expected to be franchise-tagged. Maybe Kansas City’s L’Jarius Sneed will be the best to hit the market.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Niners offer picks for Surtain or Johnson once more.
Failing that they could take a corner in the first, but in my view that would be ill-advised. There’s little separation in the cornerbacks available from late first to mid-2nd. But there’s a Grand Canyon-sized gap in tackles from the first to the next tier. It shifts from day 1 starters to development projects.
Drafting a right tackle in the first and trading up to the mid-2nd for a corner would make the most sense.
