Four Questions: Now What for the 49ers?
A sobering defeat to Baltimore puts challenging questions in front of the 49ers. They lost to the more physical team, the more prepared team, and at this moment, the team that stands between them and a championship.
What do the 49ers need to learn to close the gap with Baltimore?
A key task in the film study will be to better predict the tendencies of the Ravens' shape-shifting defense.
Baltimore simulates pressure, can go 4-3, 3-4, blitz with DBs, run blitz effectively, and put Kyle Hamilton in the middle of the chessboard diagnosing plays. They’re athletic, but what separates them is they’re smart and at times unpredictable.
All of this activity masks intent and generates free rushers and quick pressure on Brock Purdy, leading to deflections and interceptions. Purdy needs consistent checkdown targets and more help in pass protection if there’s a Super Bowl rematch.
Second, the Niners need to develop some unpredictability of their own. Baltimore sat on Purdy’s favorite target areas, forcing him out of his comfort zone.
Third, a steadfast commitment to the run. Do what you do best. Toss left. Impose identity.
Fourth, develop routes to occupy Hamilton and throw away from him.
On defense, the defensive ends must set edges that force Lamar Jackson to stay in the pocket. The Niners also need to finally plant their flag on DB2 and choose someone with the speed to hang with Zay Flowers.
On special teams, find someone more reliable than Ronnie Bell to return punts. Blunders on special teams cost the Niners potential Super Bowl appearances in 1972 and 2012, don’t go for the hat trick.
Does the signing of defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day mean that Arik Armstead will be out until the playoffs?
Could well be, but independent of Armstead this was a smart move to upgrade the depth at defensive tackle.
Signing Joseph-Day creates flexibility, the Niners can now be more patient in bringing Armstead back, and this move buys them time if they need it. News on Armstead’s health status will come out today from Santa Clara.
Joseph-Day is 6-4 and 310, he has a 59.7 grade from Pro Football Focus. He has four quarterback hits in his last five games, three sacks on the year, and is a solid run-stopper.
Can Shanahan and Purdy come from behind in the 4th down eight or more?
The proverbial Stat of Doom. After the Baltimore game, Kyle Shanahan is now 0-38 when down by eight points or more in the 4th quarter.
Since this has happened with multiple quarterbacks, it isn’t a Purdy issue. This is a Shanahan thing, father, and son.
Mike Shanahan had great success in Denver with the wide zone running scheme. The inventor of that system preaches the virtue of not drafting offensive linemen in the early rounds, that you don’t need length or elite athleticism, you just need dogs.
That’s great and all but if you’re down eight or more in the 4th and the defense knows you have to throw then what? Then 0-38.
Until Shanahan invests long overdue high draft picks in pass protection, he casts himself as Sisyphus pushing the boulder up the hill until it falls down the other side.
Up to Shanahan to change his roster blueprint. Until then, Sisyphus is 0-39 and ringless.
What are some positive and negative takeaways from Shanahan's choices in the Baltimore game?
Starting with the positive, Shanahan has been remarkable in his scripted opening drives this year when you take a closer look.
Nine touchdowns on the opening drive in 15 games. Plus a field goal, two turnovers inside the red zone, and three punts.
Through the season, the 49ers opening drive has made it into the red zone in 12 of their 15 games. The Niners have an 80% success rate at taking the opening drive to at least the opponent’s 15-yard line.
Part of Shanahan’s repertoire earns the genius label, and the opening drives are one of them.
You know there’s a but coming and here it is, but Shanahan can be too connected to his call sheet. There are times when the team needs the head coach to see the game from a thousand feet up and react from that perspective.
NFC Championship last year on the DeVonta Smith trapped ball. Shanahan gets no input from his staff, has to make a call on his own to challenge or not, and freezes. Head coach moments can trip him up.
Baltimore game, four passes and no runs to open, they take the ball to the 13, but a fateful fifth pass is picked in the end zone.
The Niners win on balance and running the ball is a defining part of their identity, but they were imbalanced in this one.
The first three possessions of the second half, despite the three Purdy interceptions earlier, 11 passes and five runs. When that sequence ends Baltimore is up 33-12.
The head coach needs to react to his team having success running, that there was still enough time to run, and that Baltimore was confusing Purdy in the passing game.
Super Bowl against Kansas City, not enough runs late. NFC Championship against the Rams, no plays for Deebo Samuel in the final 18 minutes.
Shanahan the offensive coordinator is brilliant most of the time, but Shanahan the head coach needs to assert himself more often.
