Game Preview: Baltimore Ravens at 49ers
The top seeds in each conference face off for the first time in the regular season in 30 years, and this late in the season for the first time in 53 years. The 49ers are favored by 5.5 points over the Ravens in this potential Super Bowl preview.
The Niners have eight players leading their position in the Pro Bowl voting, the Ravens have four. The two teams may combine for ten All-Pros. These rosters are stacked.
Baltimore has lost dynamic running back Keaton Mitchell to an ACL injury. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley is out of the concussion protocol and practiced Friday, but he has a lingering knee injury.
For the Niners, Arik Armstead has yet to practice this week and Kyle Shanahan considers him only “a long shot” to play. Jauan Jennings, Ross Dwelley, and Oren Burks are also questionable for the game. Javon Hargrave returned to practice.
Some point to Baltimore not playing a top-tier opponent, and the Rams taking them to OT, but this is a game of matchups, and the Ravens match up well with the 49ers.
WHEN BALTIMORE HAS THE BALL
The Ravens have the top rushing attack in the NFL, they’ve run for over 175 yards in five games, and have broken 250 twice. Losing Mitchell was a gut punch.
Offensive coordinator Todd Monken will first turn to Gus Edwards, who had 16 carries last week for 58 yards. If the Niners limit Edwards, then Monken will have to switch the game plan to Lamar Jackson as Superman.
Jackson led the team in rushing last week against Jacksonville with 12 carries for 97 yards. He has a season-high of 14 carries and likely goes above that in this game.
Mitchell had nine carries for 71 yards before going down to injury last week. The Ravens best match that production by giving most of those carries to Jackson. He’s proven to be a capable runner inside the tackles and can utilize designed runs, RPOs, and scrambles to beat the Niners defense.
San Francisco ranks 18th in rushing yards per carry against and had 16 missed tackles last week. In one of her keys to the game, ESPN’s Mina Kimes pointed out that Baltimore is the best in the league at yards after contact running the ball, and the Niners are last in defending it.
The 49ers' pass rush should take advantage of the Ravens' banged-up tackles. However, Jackson will beat a defender one-on-one, what the 49ers need is a pass rush in volume to trap Jackson. Which is why getting Hargrave back healthy could prove to be key. Steve Wilks may look to blitz more frequently or use five-man fronts.
The theme of the game for the 49ers defense is to swarm to the ball. Last week against Arizona, Niners defenders over-pursued and took poor angles in giving up 234 rushing yards. Make those same mistakes against Baltimore and the Ravens will win.
In the passing game, Odell Beckham Jr. is rounding into form, going over 90 yards in two of his last four games. Zay Flowers is a YAC threat, particularly in receiver screens. Isaiah Likely has been solid at tight end filling in for the injured Mark Andrews.
If Armstead doesn’t play, the Niners will likely have to stack the box and bring Ji’Ayir Brown up to help stop the run. The secondary will have to play well to prevent the deep ball with only limited safety help. That will be dangerous when Jackson can scramble to create more time. He leads the league in time to throw.
WHEN THE NINERS HAVE THE BALL
Shanahan’s scripted opening drive will indicate if the Niners can move the ball against a defense similar to the Cleveland unit that shut them down. The 49ers have scored a touchdown on their opening drive nine times in 14 games.
Baltimore is excellent at all three levels with the best linebacker tandem outside of San Francisco in Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen. While the duo is stout against the run, they are vulnerable in pass coverage and will be tested by Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel.
Safety Kyle Hamilton is the tip of the spear for Baltimore’s defense, he’s having an All-Pro season. Hamilton shuts down tight ends and underneath receivers, is solid against the run, and he’s an effective blitzer.
Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald likes to use simulated pressure, showing blitz and then dropping players into coverage. Brock Purdy will need to be sharp in diagnosing intent and getting the ball out quickly wide.
This 49ers offense is one of the best in team history. The Niners have scored 115 points in their past three games and had 116 in a three-game stretch last year. The last Niners teams to score at least 115 in three games in consecutive seasons go back nearly 30 years to Steve Young in 1994-95. Maybe those teams will have a Super Bowl win in common.
STAT OF THE GAME
Who scores touchdowns in the red zone and who kicks field goals? The Niners lead the league in red zone touchdown percentage, and Baltimore is 2nd in the league in red zone defense. The Ravens haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown in four games. The Niners have scored a touchdown from the red zone in 13 of their last 14 opportunities and 12 straight per ESPN's Nick Wagoner.
PREDICTION (My record 10-4)
The 49ers identity this year is to play their best against the best. That’s also the essence of this game, winning the strength-on-strength matchups.
Baltimore has the league’s best defense, the Niners have the league’s best set of weapons. The weapons have to win this game by making the must-have-it plays. Trent Williams vs. the Ravens linebackers. Brandon Aiyuk vs. Brandon Stephens, who shut down Ja’Marr Chase. George Kittle and Samuel vs. Hamilton. Purdy unmasking Macdonald’s defense.
Purdy faces his biggest challenge. He needs to stay a step ahead of the Ravens disguising the rush and coverages for 60 minutes. Purdy must execute late and play a clean game to preserve the win.
Baltimore should have a lot of success running the ball and throwing short wide routes to beat the Niners' pass rush. Flowers should be effective, but ultimately Jackson has to carry them in the air and with a season-high number of carries.
Can the Niners pass rushers bring at least the two defenders needed to tackle Lamar? They do it just often enough and that can be the game.
The Niners convert red zone opportunities to passing scores, and Baltimore settles for field goals from the best kicker of all time Justin Tucker. I predict the game comes down to the Niners getting three red zone touchdowns and Baltimore two. Tucker kicks three field goals but it's not enough as the Niners win a nail-biter.
49ers 24 Ravens 23
