Game Preview: Green Bay at 49ers
The 49ers begin their playoff run as 9.5-point favorites over Green Bay in the Divisional Round matchup. Both offenses are among the NFL’s best, it’s the defenses that are expected to determine the outcome.
Green Bay’s defense is vulnerable. 28th in rushing yards against, 29th in rushing yards after contact, and 27th in defense over the middle. Dallas only exposed the latter, the Niners have the league rushing leader in Christian McCaffrey.
The defenses that have given the 49ers trouble this year feature great linebackers. That’s not Green Bay. Quay Walker is in the bottom five of the league among starting linebackers in pass coverage according to Pro Football Focus.
Kyle Shanahan will look to target Walker in coverage against All-Pro George Kittle. Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson had 10 catches for 93 yards against Green Bay last week.
The 49ers on offense should be the irresistible force against the movable object, but it’s the run defense dependent on Arik Armstead coming off an injury that will be key.
Armstead is back after missing five games. In his absence, the 49ers were 31st in run defense efficiency. With him, they peaked in the top 10. Armstead is essential to the run defense but what’s his level of health and stamina?
The Niners defense has also had difficulty against quarterbacks that can evade the rush and improvise, something Jordan Love does well.
Green Bay On Offense
The Packers attack begins with an offensive line that has been one of the league’s best in the past nine games. Love has thrown just one interception in that span, helped by exceptional pass protection.
In the run game, Aaron Jones has four straight games over 110 yards, averaging a dominant 5.7 yards per carry.
Steve Wilks and Nick Bosa have both said this week the Niners game plan on defense is simple, stop the run, take the Packers out of play action, and make Love uncomfortable.
If Armstead has an impact the Niners should win the matchup on the defensive line and that ends the game. The Niners will need to limit Jones on early downs to set up 3rd and long and get off the field.
That places a premium on 3rd down stops and Wilks may dial up blitzes to force Love to get the ball out quickly. Love’s completion percentage drops to the low 60s against a five-man rush, but he doesn’t throw picks and can complete all-arm jump passes. The Niners haven't finished well when blitzing.
Green Bay’s elite run-pass balance makes it difficult to stop the Packers on 3rd down. In their past three games with Jones at full health, Green Bay leads the league with an impressive 3rd down conversion percentage of 64.7%. The Niners are 5th over that stretch at 45.4%.
The Packers were helped by facing a Dallas defense that was vulnerable to pre-snap motion and had gaps in coverage. Not the case with the Niner defense, which plays against this scheme every day in practice, and has unanimous All-Pro Fred Warner patrolling the middle.
Two key stats to the game are 3rd down conversion percentage and red zone touchdown percentage. The 49ers led the league in touchdown percentage in the red zone this year at more than 67%, but Green Bay is better over the last three games and is the league leader in converting goal-to-go opportunities into touchdowns at more than 94 percent.
Love spreads the ball around with several targets he can feature. Matt LaFleur will be hunting for favorable matchups. Rookie safety Ji’Ayir Brown coming off injury and Ambry Thomas will be targeted.
The Packers are likely to open the game on offense. Shanahan always defers to get the ball to open the second half and LaFleur had success taking the ball first against Dallas.
That opening drive will tell us a lot, look for Armstead’s impact, Green Bay’s ambidextrous balance in the running game, and how tight the Niners secondary chooses to play the Packer receivers. Who wins the opening drive will set the tone of the game.
49ers On Offense
The Niners are the league’s best at scoring on their opening drive, with Shanahan’s scripts producing 12 scores in 17 games including 10 touchdowns.
Shanahan will need to play to his team’s strengths in running McCaffrey wide left frequently. Green Bay defensive end Kenny Clark has a history of playing the Niners well and it would be smart to run away from him, both to avoid Clark and the Niners' lack of success running right.
Clean efficiency will be the key for Brock Purdy in the passing game. Kittle will be targeted against the Green Bay linebackers. Deebo Samuel in open space threatens the Packers' weakness in tackling after contact. Brandon Aiyuk’s elite separation skills will test the injured ankle of Jaire Alexander. Alexander didn’t practice this week but told coaches he feels better this week than last.
When the Niners are in rhythm they avoid third down, which should happen regularly against this suspect Green Bay defense. It may have to if the Niners' defense struggles to get third-down stops.
Ultimately this game is won by the Niners scoring touchdowns on most of their drives to build a lead and take away the Green Bay running game. That makes it paramount for Purdy to protect the ball and for the Niners to avoid mistakes on special teams.
The weather could factor in, there’s a 70% chance of light rain during the game. Purdy can have trouble in the rain, but will a light rain have that much of an impact? If it does, the Niners can turn to a run-heavy game plan and continue to score.
Prediction (Playoffs 5-1)
The Green Bay defense is too weak to stop the Niners. The Packers can talk up getting after Purdy, but they don’t have the back seven to take away quick passes. They also can’t stop McCaffrey. So the game is the Niners defusing Green Bay’s play action on offense. That’s with defensive execution or the offense building a lead and forcing Love to throw. Figure a mix of both. The Niners' consistent scoring wins the game.
49ers 38 Packers 24
