Playoff Predictions: 49ers and the Divisional Round
The Wild Card round included some big surprises as the 49ers are now looking at Green Bay and likely Detroit as the barriers to the Super Bowl. Both the Packers and Lions are heavily dependent on their offenses and vulnerable defensively, giving the more complete Niners a clear path to Las Vegas.
I went 5-1 on my predictions in the wild card games, whiffing on Houston by overestimating Joe Flacco and the Cleveland defense while underestimating DeMeco Ryans, Bobby Slowik, and C.J. Stroud.
At least I was right in pointing to Jordan Love’s clean efficiency and the importance of Aaron Jones’ return to health in picking Green Bay to beat the Cowboys. Dallas and Philadelphia are in shambles, with both coaches possibly being fired, and both quarterbacks being questioned.
The NFC is setting up nicely for the Niners this year and next.
Green Bay at 49ers (Saturday 5:15)
I will give a detailed breakdown in my game preview on Friday.
If the 49ers defensive line wins its matchup regularly, the game is over. Having Arik Armstead back on the field should help limit Jones and pressure Love. It will be a challenge though, Green Bay's offensive line has been one of the league's best in the second half of the year.
Outside of Kenny Clark, Green Bay can’t stop the run consistently, they’re 28th in rushing yards against. The Packer linebackers are vulnerable in pass coverage, particularly Quay Walker.
Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle should have big games as the Niners roll.
Prediction: 49ers
Tampa Bay at Detroit (Sunday Noon)
The Lions have a clear advantage in talent. Tampa was lucky to play Philadelphia in the first round, I think the Bucs would have lost to any other playoff team.
Detroit beat Tampa Bay 20-6 in Week 5, Jared Goff threw for more than 350 yards and Amon-Ra St. Brown had 12 catches for more than 120 yards. The Lions did nothing in the run game, just 40 yards.
For the Bucs, Baker Mayfield went 19-37 with a pick and no touchdowns.
Fast forward to now and Detroit has a much better running game and Mayfield has stepped up his game significantly.
Detroit should be able to establish a run-pass balance. The threat is Bucs head coach Todd Bowles choosing to blitz frequently. Goff ranks 15th in QBR against the blitz and has faced a blitz more often than nearly every QB in the league over the past few years. Pressure does give him trouble.
The thing is, Detroit knows what’s coming, and unlike Philadelphia, they’ll game plan accordingly. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is interviewing for several head coaching gigs and knows he has a spotlight. He’ll have his offense ready.
For Tampa, Mayfield can beat the Lions' secondary if he has time, the question is if his receivers can catch the ball this week after some glaring drops against the Eagles. Detroit sacked Mayfield only once in the regular season game.
Detroit should run on Tampa behind Penei Sewell and then use screens and crossing routes against the blitz. On defense, the Bucs' lack of a running game will allow Detroit to put their safeties back to help stop chunk plays.
Detroit rides the emotion of a pumped-up crowd and pulls away from the Bucs in a mix of runs, short passes, and St. Brown making key catches. The Niners face the Lions in the NFC Championship.
Prediction: Detroit
Houston at Baltimore (Saturday 1:30)
The first game this weekend can be a preview of a potential Niners-Ravens Super Bowl in this way, how well does a Kyle Shanahan offense adjust after having faced the Ravens simulated pressure scheme once before?
Baltimore beat Houston 25-9 in the season opener as the Ravens' sim pressure confused the Houston offensive line and Stroud was sacked five times. What happens the second time around? Stroud and Slowik get another swing and we’ll find out. Kyle Shanahan will be interested in the answer.
My expectation is even when playing the scheme before it’s still difficult to read the intent of a smart shape-shifting defense, there are no tells. The Ravens may not be quite as successful a second time around, but they should still get plenty of pressure and sacks on Stroud.
On offense, Lamar Jackson should get his favorite target back in former All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews, but Andrews’ snap count may be limited in transitioning back to game shape after a season-long injury.
I think Jackson will need to run more often in this one, and Ryans has had difficulty against running quarterbacks with the Niners and Texans.
Baltimore’s shifting pressure should limit Stroud, and Jackson will need to produce red zone touchdowns, possibly to Andrews, to put the game away.
Prediction: Baltimore
Kansas City at Buffalo (Sunday 3:30)
Buffalo won in Kansas City 20-17 six weeks ago as a dramatic Chiefs late go-ahead score on a lateral was called back when Kadarius Toney lined up offside. Since then, Buffalo has been hit with a series of injuries, particularly on defense.
Four defenders left the game and did not return against Pittsburgh. Three more missed that game with injuries. Even the Buffalo punter got hurt.
Cornerback Taron Johnson is in the concussion protocol. Two other corners and safety Taylor Rapp are hurt, and three linebackers are injured. Aside from Johnson, all of those players are listed as questionable or day-to-day.
Buffalo faces the league’s best quarterback, and the Bills are decimated on defense, particularly in the back seven. Buffalo’s defense will be playing hurt and with limited depth, they may fade in the second half.
The Bills can clear the field of snow, but the Buffalo winters are so harsh the turf can be rock solid. That will be a concern for both teams, can the winner come out of this game with no new injuries? The forecast calls for 23 with no snow and 16 mph winds on Sunday.
Josh Allen threw for three scores and ran for one more against the Steelers. He has more than 140 yards rushing in his past two games, averaging over six yards per carry. Kansas City held him to 3.2 yards per carry six weeks ago as the Chiefs have their best defense in years.
I expect Patrick Mahomes to beat a depleted Buffalo defense, and the Bills will struggle to stop KC later in the game due to all the injuries on defense putting hurt players on the field with minimal depth behind them.
Prediction: Kansas City
